$XPL is currently trading inside a long compression zone, and the technical structure suggests downside risk is becoming increasingly defined while upside asymmetry is building.
Using VuManChu Cipher (VMC), momentum remains in negative territory but is curling upward, a classic signal of sell-pressure exhaustion. This usually appears when late sellers are absorbed rather than when trends are accelerating downward.
On RSI, price has been drifting sideways while RSI fails to print new lows, forming a bullish divergence. This indicates weakening bearish momentum and often precedes range expansion rather than breakdown.
The Gaussian Channel shows price hugging the lower band with the Gaussian curve flattening — a clear sign of volatility compression. A reclaim of the mid-band would strongly favor trend continuation instead of a short-lived bounce.
From a fundamental flow perspective, DeFiLlama data shows stablecoin dominance increasing during risk-off periods, with transfer volume consistently flowing toward lowest-fee settlement layers. TRC20 historically dominates due to cost efficiency, but fee spikes during congestion cycles expose fragility. If @Plasma delivers sustainable near-zero-fee stablecoin rails, Plasma becomes a real contender for transactional volume, not just speculative liquidity.
Key price levels (framework, not financial advice):
Current range: ~$0.125
TP1: $0.150–0.155 (local structure reclaim, +20–24%)
TP2: $0.180–0.195 (Gaussian expansion, +45–55%)
TP3 (optional): $0.245–0.250 (prior supply zone)
SL: $0.108–0.110 (below base support, VMC invalidation)
Risk is clearly defined, volatility is compressed, and fundamentals align with on-chain stablecoin trends. $XPL isn’t a momentum trade yet — but those are often the ones worth watching earliest.
