🚨 CRITICAL MACRO ALERT — JAN 31 GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN RISK
We are entering a key 6-day window.
If the U.S. government shuts down on January 31, market structure will change — and liquidity is the core issue.
Why this matters 👇
A shutdown pauses critical data: • CPI
• Jobs reports
• Key economic releases
This creates an information blackout, increasing uncertainty and volatility across risk assets, including crypto and high-beta perps.
The real threat: Liquidity drain 🩸
Historically, shutdowns force the Treasury to rebuild the TGA (Treasury General Account).
That process removes liquidity from markets and parks it with the government — a clear headwind for speculative assets.
Less liquidity =
• Weaker risk appetite
• More violent moves
• Faster liquidations
What to monitor closely 🔍
• Funding rates & repo markets — stress shows here first
• SOFR–IORB spread — widening = banking pressure
• VIX — spikes signal fear escalation
• TGA balance updates — confirms liquidity withdrawal
• Dealer positioning — tightening liquidity amplifies volatility
Important note ⚠️
Market reactions to shutdowns are often delayed.
The real impact can unfold over weeks, not days, as funding pressure compounds.
This isn’t fear — it’s risk awareness.
Position smart. Hedge where needed. Stay liquid.
🧠 Markets punish ignorance — not preparation.