Bitcoin halving cycle theory, where BTC's major bull runs and peaks have historically aligned roughly every 4 years with halvings (which reduce mining rewards and new supply). Past cycles peaked ~12-18 months post-halving (e.g., 2013, 2017, 2021), often followed by sharp bear markets.
The last halving was in April 2024, so a strict 4-year cycle interpretation would suggest:
Peak around late 2025 (which BTC did hit an ATH over $126K).
Bear phase or "crypto winter" extending into 2026, potentially with significant drawdowns (some analysts historically warned of drops to $30K–$50K or lower if the pattern held perfectly).
However, as of early 2026, the dominant narrative in the crypto space has shifted dramatically: many experts and institutions argue the traditional 4-year cycle is dead or broken. This is due to:
Massive institutional adoption (e.g., Bitcoin ETFs with billions in inflows).
Decoupling from pure halving-driven supply shocks.
Broader liquidity, regulatory support (especially post-2024 U.S. election changes), and global crypto-friendly policies.
Less retail-driven volatility and more steady, gradual growth.
Key recent takes include:
Changpeng Zhao (CZ), Binance co-founder, stated Bitcoin will "break the four-year cycle" in 2026 and potentially enter a "super-cycle" with new all-time highs, driven by pro-crypto global shifts.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicted Bitcoin breaks the cycle and sets new ATHs in 2026 due to weakening halving effects, falling rates, and institutional adoption.
Epoch Ventures declared the end of the 4-year halving cycle, forecasting BTC at least $150K by end-2026 with slower, more sustainable growth.
Other forecasts for 2026 range widely: $75K–$225K (CNBC roundup), with clusters around $130K–$200K from firms like Bernstein, Standard Chartered, JPMorgan, etc.