#FedWatch CME FedWatch – Market-Implied Odds
The CME FedWatch Tool translates futures pricing into probabilities that the Fed will raise, cut, or keep interest rates unchanged at upcoming FOMC meetings.
January 2026 FOMC Meeting:
Markets show a strong likelihood that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at the January 28–29, 2026 policy meeting. Various FedWatch reads place this probability roughly 80%–95% depending on the snapshot used.
The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in January remains low — around ~15–25% in most FedWatch estimates.
March 2026 FOMC Meeting (Next Scheduled):
Looking ahead to March, markets see a higher chance of a 25-bp cut than in January, but still not a certainty — March probabilities vary roughly 30–50% for a cut, and ~45–50% for unchanged
The dominant market view is no rate move at the January meeting. Traders are more focused on future guidance and commentary on inflation/employment rather than immediate cuts.