The wrong question isn’t buy or sell.
The right one is: which phase of the cycle are we in?
Zoom out from daily noise and look at what really matters:
10-year real yields.
Gold doesn’t move like stocks.
It trades in long flat periods, then short explosive runs, then calm again.
Most gains happen during structural economic shifts.
History is clear:
→ Falling or unstable real yields = gold outperforms
→ Rising real yields = gold underperforms
Why?
Gold has no yield. Higher real rates raise the opportunity cost.
Since 2023:
→ Real yields are declining
→ Geopolitical risk is rising
→ Confidence in policy is weakening
Result: gold broke higher.
So recent pullbacks aren’t the end — just cycle volatility.
Gold doesn’t move on headlines.
It moves on real yields and liquidity.
Chasing candles loses.
Understanding cycles wins.
Data beats narratives.
#GOLD #MacroCycle #RealYieldSeason #Marketstructure #smartmoney