Why the "Recovery" Stalled

The expected relief rally after the January expiry was smothered by a "risk-off" mood across global markets.

The "Warsh" Shock: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair has fueled fears of a "higher-for-longer" rate environment, causing investors to favor defensive assets like gold over crypto.

Bank Failure: The closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust on January 30th—the first failure of 2026—has investors spooked about a possible "crypto collateral death spiral".

Losing Streak: Bitcoin has now marked its fourth straight monthly decline, the longest losing streak since the 2018 crash.

📈 Technical Outlook: Looking Ahead

The market is currently searching for a "floor" to prevent a slide into the $60,000 range.

Pivotal Support: Analysts are watching the $70,000–$74,000 range. A break below $70,000 could lead to an existential crisis for large holders like MicroStrategy (MSTR).

The "Death" Narrative: Some analysts predict BTC must fall to $60,000 to achieve true capitulation and reset the market for a new cycle.

Max Pain Shift: With the January contracts gone, the "gravity well" for the February 27 expiry has shifted lower to $92,000, though current spot price remains well below it.

1 BTC equals

FCFA 43,312,701.38

As of 2 Feb, 22:26 WAT • Disclaimer

2 Feb 2026 03:05 - 22:26

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Short Thoughts: February 2, 2026 - by Michael Burry

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