btcanalysis

I bought my first BTC when the market cap was under $10B ($700 per BTC) and made my first million in 2017 through ICOs. Since then, I’ve learned one major lesson: DO NOT SELL.

Here’s how I spot the bottom:
1️⃣ Miner Capitulation (100% Success Rate)
The Puell Multiple measures miner revenue. If it drops below 0.5, miners are mining at a loss. Every single time it went under 0.5, BTC hit a bottom and surged shortly after. Currently, it’s at 0.66.
Given how traders now front-run this indicator (it’s been accurate for 11 years), I think we might not even hit 0.5 this cycle.
2️⃣ Bitcoin Production Cost (90% Success Rate)
This is the cost for miners to produce one BTC — mainly electricity + hardware wear. In Feb 2026, it’s around $77K–$79K. If BTC price stays far below that for too long, miners start selling to cover costs. Once they run out, the market typically bottoms.
Think of it like Michael Saylor dumping BTC at the bottom just to keep the lights on. This is what clueless bears misunderstand when they tweet nonsense about BTC.
3️⃣ MVRV Z-Score (80% Success Rate)
This metric compares the current BTC price to the average price buyers paid, adjusted for historical volatility. Right now, it’s 0.4, while past bottoms hit -0.3.
We’ve underperformed average upside by 130%, so it’s possible the downside could also surprise. If that happens, BTC could bottom around 0.20 (~$59K per BTC).
4️⃣ Supply in Profit and Loss
Currently, about 54% of on-chain BTC is in profit. Historically, when this drops to 45% or lower, we are near the bottom.
Adjusting for ETFs and Saylor holding 9.9% of supply, the effective percent in profit is closer to 47% — very close to a typical bottom.
💡 You can track more indicators, but most add noise rather than value. The key is: make a simple plan and stick to it. Simpler is usually better.
#BTC #cryptotrading #BinanceSquare #BTCanalysis #BitcoinBottom

Bitcoin's futures market just went through one of its biggest resets in almost 3 years and here's everything you need to know in simple words.
📌 What is Open Interest (OI)?
Open Interest means the total number of active futures/options contracts in the market that are still open (not closed). Simply put it shows how many traders are betting on Bitcoin's price going up or down using leverage.
📊 What Happened?
Bitcoin's total Open Interest peaked above $94 billion in October 2025, when BTC hit its all-time high. But now, it has dropped to around $44 billion a massive 55% decline, and the steepest fall since April 2023.
🏦 Who Holds the Remaining OI?
Among all exchanges, Binance holds the largest share at around $6.52 billion, which is 31% of total open interest, while ByBit comes second with 17% at $3.61 billion.
❓ Why Did OI Fall So Sharply?
Experts point to several reasons a weaker US dollar, ongoing foreign conflicts, a shaky Japanese bond market, and concerns around AI disrupting traditional tech companies. On top of that, a stronger-than-expected US jobs report reduced hopes for interest rate cuts, which triggered large-scale institutional selling.
📉 What Does This Mean for the Market?
When OI drops this much, it signals that traders are cutting their leverage and stepping away from risky bets. Historically, when Open Interest variation reaches the "extreme fear" zone, it has often aligned with Bitcoin price bottoms a point where long-term holders tend to start accumulating.
🟢 Is This Bad or Good?
It sounds scary, but this kind of reset is actually healthy. It flushes out over-leveraged positions and clears the market for a fresh, stronger move upward. Analysts suggest a potential BTC rebound to $80K+ by mid-2026 depends on clearer signals from the US Federal Reserve and renewed liquidity entering the market.
💬 Question for Binance Square Community:
Bitcoin Open Interest has dropped 55% from its all-time high the biggest decline in nearly 3 years. Do you think this market reset is setting the stage for Bitcoin's next big bull run, or do you expect more pain ahead before recovery?
Drop your thoughts below! 👇
#BTC #CryptoMarketMoves #BinanceSquare #BTCanalysis #CryptoNews
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

#tradecryptosonx Current market structure shows $BTC trading in a broad consolidation phase after failing to sustain momentum above the $112,000 resistance. In post-halving cycles, price typically rotates between liquidity zones before establishing the next leg up. Smart money accumulates near strong demand areas instead of chasing FOMO candles.

Current market structure shows clear levels where institutional players are accumulating $BTC.
Primary Accumulation Zone: $98K–$102K
40% allocation hereWatch for volume decline + structure hold
Deep Value Zone: $85K–$90K
30% long-term allocationHistorical support + 200 MA cluster
Confirmation Zone: Above $115K
30% momentum allocationWait for weekly close with volume
Simple Rule: Scale in, don't go all in. Let the market come to your zones.
Primary Accumulation Zone
The first area to watch is $98,000 to $102,000. This zone previously acted as major resistance during the 2024-2025 bull run and now flips to support. If price corrects into this range with decreasing volume and holds above the weekly 21 EMA, this becomes an ideal DCA entry. Risk can be managed below the $95,000 psychological level.
Deep Value Zone
If macro uncertainty increases (Fed policy, geopolitical tensions) and $BTC tests lower liquidity, the $85,000 to $90,000 range offers asymmetric long-term opportunity. This area aligns with:
Previous cycle's all-time high resistance (now support)200-day moving averageInstitutional accumulation cluster (based on Chainalysis data)
Historical data shows bear market wicks into these zones get bought aggressively by spot holders.
Confirmation Entry
For conservative traders, the smarter approach is waiting for reclaim. A strong weekly close back above $115,000 with volume confirmation would signal structural strength returning. That's where momentum traders can scale in with higher conviction.
Impact on Other Coins
Coin Strategy
$ETH Accumulate $2,400–$2,600 range; strong correlation with BTC
$SOL Watch $120–$130 zone; higher beta so wider stops needed
$BNB Accumulate $580–$600; exchange token with unique catalysts
The Golden Rule
Do not deploy all capital at one level. Scale entries using:
40% at primary zone30% at deep value zone30% at confirmation breakout
Avoid leverage. Let the market come to your zones instead of forcing trades. In uncertain markets, patience creates profit.

For real-time Bitcoin accumulation alerts and market structure updates:Follow me 🌟: @Apexwarlock for daily institutional-grade analysis.
#apexwarlock #strategybtc #CryptoAccumulation #BTCanalysis