btccycles

Если всё существование биткоина условно разделить на 3 года роста и 1 год падения, составляющие один цикл, то 2026 год — очередной год падения для актива.

Эту особенность я заметил в 2023 году, когда изучал и сравнивал доходность биткоина с другими видами активов.

На рисунке четко прослеживается определённый цикл. Пришла мысль отразить это на графике и посмотреть, как исторически чередуются циклы.

🧐 Получился интересный результат. Помимо того, что само падение происходит ровно в течении года, оно еще и развивается в падающем канале. Уже в январе 2025 года я понимал, что в 2026 году будет сильное падение биткоина, а 2025 год будет последним годом роста в цикле, когда трейдеры и инвесторы смогут зафиксировать свой профит!

Падение биткоина в январе 2026 года подтвердило эту мысль!

Что ждать в 2026 году? 🤔
Если проводить аналогию с предыдущими периодами, то в 2026 году можно ожидать падение биткоина примерно на 70–80% от хая $126 000. Это соответствует диапазону $25 000-$37 000.

Меня удивили такие низки цифры покупки, ведь недельные МА200-250-350 несколько выше и исторически они часто выступают разворотными поддержками.

Поэтому, с точки зрения технического анализа, хорошие долгосрочные покупки могут быть после ретеста и разворота цены от недельных MA200-350 в диапазоне $55 000-$43 000.

📉 Соответственно, план на этот год - продолжать шортить падение биткоина к недельной МА200. Далее искать различные признаки разворота, используя другие методы анализа.

Всем удачных трейдов в 2026 году!
#BTCcycles $BTC

History shows repeating cycles before local bottoms:
🔻 2022 ➝ ~33 days → Capitulation phase
🔻 2023 ➝ ~30 days → Minor retracement
🔻 2024 ➝ ~28 days → Consolidation before rally
🔻 2025 ➝ ~32 days → Correction phase
Now in 2026, $BTC is showing a similar structure forming again:
📉 Short-term trend: Bearish momentum with 3-day death cross forming
📊 Support / Resistance:
• Resistance: $34,500
• Mid Zone: $32,800
• Major Support: $30,500
• Critical Support: $29,200
💡 Notes:
If BTC holds $32,800, short-term bounce likely
Break below $30,500 = deeper testing toward $29,200
History may not repeat exactly, but cycle patterns rhyme
📌 Smart money waits for confirmation before taking positions.
#BTCcycles #BTCVSGOLD

For a decade, Bitcoin was a metronome. Like clockwork, it followed the "four-year cycle": a halving event, a parabolic moon mission, a soul-crushing crash, and a quiet recovery. But as we navigate early 2026, that metronome has skipped a beat. The old script has been shredded, and a new, institutional-grade engine is under the hood.
The question is no longer when the next halving pump happens, but rather: Is the cycle dead, or has it just evolved into a macro-driven beast?

The Mutation of the "Metronome"
Historically, Bitcoin’s supply shock—the halving—was the primary driver of price. But in 2026, the absolute reduction in supply is marginal. With over 95% of all Bitcoin already mined, the daily production of new coins is easily absorbed by a single morning’s worth of ETF inflows.
Why 2026 is the turning point:
Institutional Absorption: In 2024, ETFs were the "new kids." In 2026, they are the backbone. Pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and corporate treasuries (led by the likes of Strategy/MSTR) have turned Bitcoin into a "Strategic Reserve Asset."The Fed is the New Halving: Bitcoin now trades less like a niche tech experiment and more like "Digital Gold" on steroids. Its price is now more sensitive to Global M2 Liquidity and the Federal Reserve's "dot plot" than to block rewards.Volatility Compression: The violent 80% drawdowns of 2018 and 2022 are being replaced by "structural grinds." Institutions buy the dips that used to cause retail panic, creating a higher, more stable floor.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: The Post-2026 Horizon
Analysts at major firms like Grayscale and Bitwise are signaling that 2026 will mark the definitive end of the four-year theory. Instead of a "bear leg," many are forecasting a sustained, institutional-led bull run.
IndicatorOld Cycle (2012-2022)New Era (2026+)Primary DriverBitcoin HalvingGlobal Liquidity (M2)Main ParticipantRetail / SpeculatorsInstitutions / Nation-StatesVolatilityExtreme (Blow-off tops)Compressed (Sustainable uptrend)Price Target 2026Bear Market ($40k-$60k)$130,000 – $170,000
The "Institutional Consensus": Most serious 2026 forecasts now cluster between $120,000 and $170,000. While some outliers predict a "melt-up" toward $400k+ if sovereign adoption accelerates, the general consensus is a "mature grind" upward.
The Hidden Risk: Impatient Capital
The decoupling doesn't mean "only up." It means the cycle is stretching. Those waiting for a 2021-style "alt-season" or a predictable 2026 crash are being punished by a market that is increasingly "boring" but structurally stronger. In 2026, Bitcoin is no longer a trade; it's a foundation.
$BTC
$ETH
$XAU
#BTC100kNext? #TradeCryptosOnX #BTCcycles #Follow4more #FollowMeAndGetReward

Hey friends, a decisive moment has arrived in Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle! Cycle analyst Bob Loukas said in a September 24, 2025 video that the market is on the verge of a euphoric “blowoff” advance – with a cycle high in Q4, or the peak already printed at month 33. Loukas is heavily bullish on an imminent upside but also outlined risk markers.
First, understand the context: The uptrend from the bear low has been consistent, with outperformance periods making up most gains. The current multi-month range feels like “one big solid block” – whales’ sustained distribution vs institutions’ persistent buying has held the price. “Significant whales selling pressure,” but “institutional buying support” maintained the range.

Bullish pillar: The terminal mania phase is missing, which historically brought 3-month euphoric buying to cycle peaks. Now at month 34 (from prior low), seasonality is favorable – “blowoff phase imminent, just about to begin!” The August high at month 33 matches prior cycles, making a bearish case credible (10-20% chance). But they’re not ignoring underperformance vs equities and gold’s rally – structurally, the 700% rise is healthy in diminishing returns.

If the blowoff happens, weekly advances will compound over 8-15 weeks. Target? Flexible, but example: doubling from $105K to $210K, $200K possible by December! Guide by sentiment and overextension, not round numbers.

Risks: 10-month MA at ~$100K – a monthly close below is a major warning. A $75K weekly low breach would confirm a bear market. On the upside, $120K+ new ATH is needed, setting $105K as a floor; a reversal below indicates a top.

Third path: Extended cycle peaking in early 2026 with a shorter bear phase – controlled rise to $140K-$160K, then a final push. On Q4 consensus: “Historically, it unfolds similarly.”
Base case: Bull high in the 35-37 month window. Currently, BTC is at $111,740.

What do you think. 📈 #bitcoin #BTCcycles #blowofftop #CryptoAnalysisn #analysis

🚨 Bitcoin Enters a New Era: Are Explosive Surges a Thing of the Past?
Since BlackRock launched its IBIT ETF, Bitcoin has soared by 250%. But the days of dramatic green candles—those sudden price spikes that thrilled traders—may be coming to an end. According to Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, Bitcoin’s behavior is shifting, shaped by spot ETFs and rising institutional involvement.
🛡️ The Stabilizing Force of Spot ETFs
Balchunas points to a major milestone: IBIT has passed $100 billion in assets under management. Even when Galaxy Digital sold 80,000 BTC, Bitcoin remained stable, fluctuating between $116,000 and $120,000.
Before ETFs, such a sale could have caused panic and a sharp drop. Now, consistent inflows from managed funds are bringing stability to the market.
🏦 Institutions Are Driving a New Narrative
According to Citigroup, every $1 billion invested in ETFs could increase Bitcoin’s price by around 3.6%. That puts their forecast at $199,000 per BTC by the end of the year—assuming capital keeps flowing in.
IBIT’s rapid rise to $100 billion shows the growing appetite among major players. Unlike retail traders chasing quick profits, institutions tend to invest with a long-term outlook, helping reduce extreme volatility.
⚖️ Less Volatility, More Utility?
With this shift, Bitcoin is starting to behave less like a speculative asset and more like a usable currency. Balchunas believes this could pave the way for everyday use—like paying bills or small purchases.
Still, some early adopters—so-called “whales”—are taking profits and stepping back. This calmer environment might push active traders toward riskier or less-regulated markets.
🌊 Calmer Waters Ahead?
Balchunas notes that the iconic “God candles” may not disappear entirely—but they’ll likely become rare. The influence of ETFs and corporate strategies is helping smooth out dramatic price swings.
Bitcoin seems to be entering a more mature phase: less chaotic, more predictable. That may disappoint some thrill-seekers—but for others, it’s a welcome evolution.

#BTCcycles

Bitcoin is nearing a critical turning point in its long-established four-year cycle, with veteran traders noting that the recent rally to record highs above $126,000 in early October 2025 marks a crucial phase in the market.
Key Insights on the Cycle
Veteran trader Peter Brandt points out that if Bitcoin follows its historical cycle patterns, the peak of the current bull cycle likely occurred around the first week of October 2025, coinciding with the new all-time high of roughly $126,100.However, there is a strong possibility that Bitcoin might defy its traditional four-year rhythm due to evolving market dynamics like institutional adoption and broad accumulation through spot ETFs. This could lead to a "massive extension" of the bull run with prices potentially surging well beyond $150,000 and possibly toward $185,000.The recent consolidation in September acted as a "coiling" phase that absorbed supply from short-term holders to long-term institutional investors, setting the stage for the breakout seen in October. This consolidation is seen as structurally healthy and supportive of sustained upside momentum.
Technical and Market Factors
The breakout above $118,000 to $120,000 resistance was accompanied by heavy short squeeze liquidations, signaling a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish.Bitcoin's volatility is currently low, and certain momentum indicators suggest an impending breakout or breakdown within the next 100 days, meaning the market may soon commit to a strong directional move.Seasonal factors also play a role, with October historically marking the start of strong Q4 rallies for Bitcoin, sometimes contributing up to 60% of the year’s gains.
Outlook
Analysts are bullish on the short to medium term, with many targeting $135,000 to $145,000 for the near term and year-end price targets stretching to $160,000–$200,000 fueled by institutional inflows and macroeconomic tailwinds.Long-term projections see Bitcoin continuing its maturation into a mainstream asset, with institutional ownership and treasury adoption poised to grow significantly in the coming years.The possibility of Bitcoin breaking away from its traditional cycles is real, raising the stakes for both traders and investors about how far and long this bull market can extend.
In summary, Bitcoin's current cycle is at a pivotal juncture that could either mark a near-term top or a launchpad for an unprecedented extension of the rally, with seasoned market participants watching for decisive price and volume cues in the coming weeks.
$BTC
#BTC #MarketPullback #BTCcycles