correction

A non-statistical look at recurring BTC cycle behavior using monthly ROC and Momentum.
ROC:
Analyzing BTC monthly ROC(12):
The indicator has dropped below -69 only three times, each coinciding with a local market bottom:
December 2022
December 2018
January 2015
A possible 4-year cycle can be observed here, likely connected to Bitcoin’s 4-year halving cycle.
Following that pattern:
December 2022 + 4 years = December 2026
As of April 2026, monthly ROC(12) was at -19.
The following values appeared at each new ATH:
BTC Price → ROC
$32 → 298066
$1242 → 9496
$19804 → 1331
$68997 → 189
$126219 → 56
The percentage decline between ROC peaks has also been decreasing over time:
298066 → 9496: -96.81%
9496 → 1331: -85.98%
1331 → 189: -85.80%
189 → 56: -70.37%
56 → X: Y
Based on this trend alone, one could assume:
Y ≥ -70.37%
If that pattern continues, the next #ROC peak would remain below 56, potentially somewhere around 10–30.
MOMENTUM:
Analyzing $BTC monthly Momentum(12):
Month of local Momentum peak — local Momentum high / local Momentum low after correction — month of local Momentum bottom:
June 2011 — 16.10 / -9.41 — June 2012 = -158.45%
November 2013 — 1193.23 / -825.91 — November 2014 = -169.22%
December 2017 — 12917.91 / -10195.97 — December 2018 = -178.93%
March 2021 — 52369.12 / -40861.82 — October 2022 = -178.03%
January 2025 — 59861.87 / -17900.78 — April 2026 (latest completed month at the time of writing) = -129.90%
Hypothesis 1:
The current -129.90% drawdown is still less severe than previous cycle lows, which could suggest the correction may still be ongoing. Just one possible interpretation, not a conclusion.
Hypothesis 2:
The local Momentum bottom of this #Correction could potentially fall somewhere in the -66,000 to -80,000 range. This is not a statistical projection, just a rough assumption based on prior #CYCLE behavior.
*Only 4 completed historical observations — sample size is extremely limited.
Momentum expansion:
-9.41 → 1193.23 = +12780.45%
-825.91 → 12917.91 = +1664.08%
-10195.97 → 52369.12 = +613.63%
-40861.82 → 59861.87 = +246.50%
X → Y = estimated range of +85% to +115% (intuitive estimate, not a derived model), where:
X = future local Momentum bottom
Y = future local #momentum #peak