cryptozeno

🔥 $BTC 3W Ulcer Index Signals a Critical Inflection Zone

On the 3 week timeframe, the Ulcer Index is compressing toward the historical “Relative Position” band that has consistently preceded major upside expansions. Previous cycles show a clear rhythm: deep contraction → structural base → strongest impulsive leg

Cycle bottoms in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022 formed when downside volatility peaked and seller exhaustion aligned with macro accumulation. Today, volatility stress remains controlled while price structure holds higher macro support, suggesting this is not panic distribution but strategic positioning.

The indicator has not reached extreme capitulation territory, meaning the market may still be building pressure before a decisive expansion. If historical symmetry holds, the next move will not be gradual it will be violent ⚡

Compression creates energy. Energy seeks release.
#CryptoZeno #BTCMiningDifficultyIncrease

The best chart in the ecosystem. The valuation of $BTC vs. #Gold

It's not about the valuation of $BTC vs. the Dollar, we all know that this is going to up over the years.

It's about #Bitcoin vs. Gold given that these two are hard assets.
The current valuation is the lowest it has ever been.

The key insight: While everyone believes we're only a few months into a bear market (because BTC hit its USD all-time-high in October 2025), the BTC/Gold chart tells a completely different story.

Bitcoin actually peaked relative to gold in December 2024, meaning we've been in a bear market for ~14 months already.

The pattern: Every prior bear market in BTC/Gold terms lasted exactly ~14 months: November 2013 to January 2015, December 2017 to February 2019, April 2021 to June 2022.

The weekly RSI (bottom panel) is now at its lowest level in history, matching the bottoms of each previous cycle.

The reframe: The October 2025 USD all-time-high may not have been genuine Bitcoin strength at all: it was likely just gold and silver ripping higher and dragging Bitcoin's dollar price up with them. In real terms (priced in gold), Bitcoin has been declining for over a year.

The conclusion: Rather than being early in a bear market, we could be in the final chapter of one. And every time BTC/Gold RSI hit these extreme lows, it was followed by years of uptrend.

Anyone betting on further downside from here is essentially betting that this historically extreme low keeps going lower.

Ultimately, history has proven that these moments in time are the best moments to be going all-in on #Bitcoin and should result into a great return.
#CryptoZeno #TrumpNewTariffs

🔥 $BTC 3W Ulcer Index Signals a Critical Inflection Zone
On the 3-week timeframe, the Ulcer Index is compressing toward the historical “Relative Position” band — a zone that has consistently preceded major upside expansions.
Previous cycles followed a clear rhythm:
deep contraction → structural base → strongest impulsive leg
Cycle bottoms in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022 formed when downside volatility peaked and seller exhaustion aligned with macro accumulation.
Today, volatility stress remains controlled while price structure holds higher macro support — suggesting this is not panic distribution, but strategic positioning.
The indicator has not yet reached extreme capitulation territory, meaning pressure may still be building before a decisive expansion. If historical symmetry holds, the next move won’t be gradual… it will be violent ⚡
Compression creates energy.
Energy seeks release.
#CryptoZeno #BTCMiningDifficultyIncrease

The most important chart in the entire ecosystem right now is $BTC vs. #GOL .
This isn’t about Bitcoin against the dollar — over time, we all expect USD-denominated prices to rise. The real comparison is Bitcoin vs. Gold — two hard assets competing for long-term value storage.
Right now, BTC/Gold valuation is sitting at its lowest level ever.
Here’s the key perspective shift:
While most people think we’re just a few months into a bear market (since BTC made a new USD all-time high in October 2025), the BTC/Gold chart tells a very different story. Bitcoin actually topped relative to gold in December 2024. That means we’ve already been in a bear market — in real terms — for roughly 14 months.
History shows a clear pattern:
Nov 2013 → Jan 2015 (~14 months)
Dec 2017 → Feb 2019 (~14 months)
Apr 2021 → Jun 2022 (~14 months)
Every prior BTC/Gold bear cycle lasted about 14 months.
Now add this: the weekly RSI on BTC/Gold is at the lowest level ever recorded — matching previous cycle bottoms.
This reframes the narrative completely.
The October 2025 USD all-time high may not have reflected true Bitcoin strength. It was likely driven by gold and silver surging, which mechanically lifted BTC’s dollar price. But priced in gold, Bitcoin has been trending down for over a year.
The bigger takeaway:
Instead of being early in a bear market, we may actually be nearing its final stage. Historically, when BTC/Gold RSI hits these extreme lows, it has preceded multi-year uptrends.
Anyone expecting significantly lower prices from here is effectively betting that this historically unprecedented oversold condition continues.
And history suggests that moments like this have consistently been some of the best long-term accumulation zones for Bitcoin.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoZeno #Gold

$BTC | 3W Ulcer Index Near a Major Decision Point
On the 3-week chart, the Ulcer Index is tightening into its historical Relative Position zone — an area that has repeatedly come before powerful upside expansions. Past cycles follow the same pattern:
sharp contraction → base formation → explosive impulse.
Major bottoms in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022 appeared when downside volatility peaked, sellers were exhausted, and long-term accumulation began. Right now, volatility stress is still contained and price is holding higher macro support — this looks less like panic selling and more like calculated positioning.
Notably, the indicator hasn’t hit full capitulation yet. That suggests pressure is still building. If history rhymes, the next move won’t be slow or orderly — it’ll be aggressive ⚡
Compression stores energy.
Energy eventually breaks free.
#CryptoZeno #BTCMiningDifficultyIncrease #ZAMAPreTGESale

🚨 THIS IS WHY YOUR CRYPTO BAGS ARE DUMPING

It's not due to quantum FUD.
It's not due to the Fed being hawkish.

The biggest reason is the liquidity crisis.

As of now, a massive amount of liquidity has been drained by the US Treasury to refill its TGA account.

In the past month, Treasury has sucked out almost $150 billion from the economy.

Now add an already weakening economy on top of a liquidity crisis, and we have a perfect recipe for risk-on asset underperformance.

And crypto is not the only thing that is being sold off.

All the Mag7 stocks have been down YTD in 2026, with a few of them down 12%-15% this year.

So, does that mean the dump will continue?

Well, the TGA balance is already at $922 billion, and this has been the ceiling since the 2020 pandemic ended.

So until a pandemic or WWIII starts, the next step will be the TGA balance going down, which will inject liquidity back into the market.

On top of that, $150 billion in tax refunds will hit the market by March, which will bring more dry powder and could bring a relief rally.
#CryptoZeno

#Bitcoin Sees Deepening Accumulation as On-Chain Activity Enters Cooling Phase

On-chain data is revealing a developing divergence within the $BTC market, where long-term positioning continues to strengthen while transactional activity shows signs of moderation. Balances held by accumulating address cohorts are extending their structural uptrend, climbing steadily despite recent price volatility. The expansion is evident across both retail-linked accumulation and patterned accumulation wallets, reinforcing the view that conviction-driven holders are actively absorbing circulating supply.

What makes this trend more significant is the timing. Even as price momentum slows and corrective pressure emerges, accumulation flows remain persistent. Historically, this behavior reflects strategic positioning rather than speculative chasing. Supply is gradually migrating into wallets associated with long holding periods, tightening liquid availability across the network and reducing immediate sell-side pressure.

In contrast, inflow activity tied to more reactive market participants is softening. Transfers from CEX-connected addresses and highly active wallets have declined relative to prior expansion phases. Frequent in–out flow cohorts typically linked to trading liquidity are also showing reduced throughput. The simultaneous cooling in the Bull–Bear Indicator further suggests that speculative demand is compressing rather than expanding.

This combination signals an internal market rebalancing. Bitcoin is not exhibiting broad distribution characteristics; instead, the data points to ongoing supply absorption alongside declining short-term rotation. Such structures have historically aligned with mid-cycle consolidation environments, where accumulation builds beneath the surface before liquidity and demand return to drive the next directional expansion.
#CryptoZeno

#Bitcoin Sees Deepening Accumulation as On-Chain Activity Enters Cooling Phase
On-chain data is revealing a developing divergence within the $BTC market. Long-term positioning continues to strengthen while transactional activity shows signs of moderation.
Balances held by accumulating address cohorts are extending their structural uptrend, climbing steadily despite recent price volatility. This expansion is visible across both retail-linked accumulation and patterned accumulation wallets — reinforcing the view that conviction-driven holders are actively absorbing circulating supply.
What makes this trend more significant is the timing. Even as price momentum slows and corrective pressure emerges, accumulation flows remain persistent. Historically, this reflects strategic positioning rather than speculative chasing. Supply is gradually migrating into wallets associated with long holding periods, tightening liquid availability and reducing immediate sell-side pressure.
In contrast, inflow activity tied to more reactive market participants is softening. Transfers from CEX-connected addresses and highly active wallets have declined relative to prior expansion phases. Frequent in–out flow cohorts typically linked to trading liquidity are also showing reduced throughput. The simultaneous cooling in the Bull–Bear Indicator suggests speculative demand is compressing rather than expanding.
This combination signals an internal market rebalancing. Bitcoin is not exhibiting broad distribution characteristics — instead, the data points to ongoing supply absorption alongside declining short-term rotation. Historically, structures like this align with mid-cycle consolidation, where accumulation builds beneath the surface before liquidity and demand return to drive the next expansion.
#CryptoZeno

$BTC at a Critical Inflection Point: Profit Euphoria vs Capitulation Shock

Net Realized Profit/Loss is flashing a high tension signal right at elevated price structure

Realized profits recently surged toward extreme historical bands, echoing prior late cycle distribution phases. When green spikes expand aggressively while price grinds near highs, it typically reflects strategic profit taking rather than fresh impulsive accumulation

The latest sharp red print marks one of the deepest realized loss events since the 2022 capitulation. Such violent downside spikes historically occur during liquidity sweeps and forced leverage unwinds, not during stable consolidation⚠

Price remains structurally elevated despite this loss event, creating a critical divergence. Either strong underlying demand is absorbing supply or a delayed reaction phase is building beneath the surface

Historically, when realized losses expand after prolonged profit dominance, volatility expansion follows. The market shifts from distribution into emotional shakeout before committing to its next major directional move

This is not a calm phase. It is compression before expansion. The reaction around this zone will define whether this is a reset within strength or the early signal of a broader unwind
#CryptoZeno #MarketRebound

$BTC at a Critical Inflection Point: Profit Euphoria vs Capitulation Shock
Net Realized Profit/Loss is flashing a high tension signal right at elevated price structure
Realized profits recently surged toward extreme historical bands, echoing prior late cycle distribution phases. When green spikes expand aggressively while price grinds near highs, it typically reflects strategic profit taking rather than fresh impulsive accumulation
The latest sharp red print marks one of the deepest realized loss events since the 2022 capitulation. Such violent downside spikes historically occur during liquidity sweeps and forced leverage unwinds, not during stable consolidation⚠
Price remains structurally elevated despite this loss event, creating a critical divergence. Either strong underlying demand is absorbing supply or a delayed reaction phase is building beneath the surface
Historically, when realized losses expand after prolonged profit dominance, volatility expansion follows. The market shifts from distribution into emotional shakeout before committing to its next major directional move
This is not a calm phase. It is compression before expansion. The reaction around this zone will define whether this is a reset within strength or the early signal of a broader unwind
#CryptoZeno #MarketRebound

This chart applies a Wyckoff-style cycle to $BTC long-term structure, projecting a full Accumulation → Mark-Up → Distribution → Mark-Down sequence with a potential retrace toward $40,000 before the next expansion phase.

Is $40,000 possible? Yes - that zone aligns with prior breakout structure and major liquidity clusters from 2021–2024, and historically BTC has retraced 60–80% after macro tops. Is it guaranteed? No - cycle overlays are frameworks, not destiny.

If #BTC tops in the $180k–$250k range and loses monthly structure with a confirmed lower high and macro breakdown, a 40k–60k region becomes structurally logical; on the other hand, if higher monthly lows continue forming and institutional absorption remains strong, each cycle retracement can become progressively shallower.

The real question isn’t whether BTC will dump to 40k it’s whether you have a plan for both outcomes, because euphoria always feels infinite at the top, capitulation always feels permanent at the bottom, and only those positioned strategically survive both.
#CryptoZeno #BitcoinAnalysis

$BTC 1W Structure Points to Extended Distribution - 45K Region as Potential Cycle Bottom

On the weekly, #BTC has rejected the major supply zone and is now breaking down from a clear distribution range.
Momentum has shifted, and price is trading below the mid-range support that held the prior expansion.

If this structure continues to play out, the 45K region stands out as the next high-timeframe demand cluster and psychological reset level.

On one side, liquidity above has already been tapped and sellers are defending previous highs aggressively.
On the other side, a deeper flush into the 40k would complete a full cyclical reset and trigger broader capitulation.

That’s the zone where I’ll be looking to size in aggressively again.
#CryptoZeno #BitcoinForecast

#Gold at Extreme Liquidity Premium While #Bitcoin Trades at Deep Liquidity Discount - A Rare Relative Value Setup

Gold’s global liquidity oscillator is pushing toward +2σ, signaling historical overextension versus macro liquidity conditions. This level has rarely sustained for long without consolidation or pullback.

Bitcoin’s liquidity oscillator is pressing into -2σ territory, reflecting extreme undervaluation relative to the same backdrop. Such compression often precedes aggressive upside repricing phases.

The BTC/Gold relative liquidity Z-score is now at cycle lows — on one side gold is pricing tight liquidity as strength, on the other side $BTC is pricing it as stress. Mean reversion between these two has historically been violent, fast, and structurally trend-defining for capital rotation.

#CryptoZeno #GoldSilverRally #Gold #RMJ_trades

$ETH The strong rally that followed the 2022 bear market created the appearance of a renewed bull market, but structurally it fits better as a counter-trend move within a broader corrective range rather than the start of a new long-term cycle.

Throughout this corrective phase, price has remained largely range-bound, repeatedly failing to establish sustained acceptance above the previous cycle highs. This behavior points to distribution and consolidation, not continuation.

From this perspective, the apparent bull market that developed within the correction can be interpreted as a dead cat bounce, a technically strong bounce occurring inside a larger corrective structure.

The current market structure suggests that a final shakeout phase may still be required to fully reset sentiment and liquidity before Ethereum can transition into a new impulsive bullish cycle. Only after such a reset would a genuine long-term move toward new all-time highs become structurally likely.

Macro Structure Breakdown (Chart Context)

The Pump (2019–2021)
This phase represents the true impulsive bullish move following the 2018 bear market. Price shows strong trend expansion, increasing momentum, and clear higher highs and higher lows, classic characteristics of a genuine bull market.

The Correction (2021–2026)
After the peak, ETH enters a wide, multi-year corrective structure. Despite several strong rallies within this range, price fails to establish sustained new highs above the prior cycle peak. Structurally, this period behaves more like distribution and correction than continuation.

The Shakeout (Projected)
The chart anticipates a final liquidity-driven move to the downside, likely intended to break market confidence, force capitulation, and reset positioning ahead of a new cycle.

The Moon (Projected)
Only after this shakeout does the structure suggest the conditions for a true long-term bullish continuation, with price discovery and expansion well beyond previous highs.
#CryptoZeno #WhaleDeRiskETH

#Gold at Extreme Liquidity Premium While #Bitcoin Trades at Deep Liquidity Discount - A Rare Relative Value Setup

Gold’s global liquidity oscillator is pushing toward +2σ, signaling historical overextension versus macro liquidity conditions. This level has rarely sustained for long without consolidation or pullback.

Bitcoin’s liquidity oscillator is pressing into -2σ territory, reflecting extreme undervaluation relative to the same backdrop. Such compression often precedes aggressive upside repricing phases.

The BTC/Gold relative liquidity Z-score is now at cycle lows on one side gold is pricing tight liquidity as strength, on the other side $BTC is pricing it as stress. Mean reversion between these two has historically been violent, fast, and structurally trend-defining for capital rotation.

#CryptoZeno #GoldSilverRally #RMJ_trades

🔥 #Bitcoin Short Term MVRV hits historic support zone
$BTC is once again testing the Short Term MVRV support band, the same region that marked major cycle bottoms in 2016, 2019, 2020, and 2023.

Each touch of this green zone previously triggered strong demand absorption, aggressive dip buying, and multi month expansions. Now the metric is compressing near 1.0 again, signaling short term holders are back to breakeven where fear peaks and smart money accumulates

Red circles in past cycles aligned with breakdown risk and weak structure. Green clusters consistently preceded explosive rebound🚀
If history rhymes, this is not distribution. This is positioning. Capitulation creates opportunity.
#CryptoZeno #WhenWillBTCRebound

#Gold vs #Bitcoin – A Rare Relative Value Opportunity

Gold is trading at an extreme liquidity premium, with its global liquidity oscillator approaching +2σ, signaling significant overextension relative to macro liquidity conditions.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin sits at a deep liquidity discount, with its oscillator hitting -2σ, highlighting extreme undervaluation in the same context.

The BTC/Gold relative liquidity Z-score is now at cycle lows — gold prices tight liquidity as strength, while $BTC prices it as stress. Historically, mean reversion between these extremes has been sharp and volatile.

#CryptoZeno #GoldSilverRally

🔥 $BTC Blood in the Streets or the Last Shakeout Before Liftoff

Every bull cycle tells the same story. Violent pullbacks, panic selling, then explosive continuation.

Data shows repeated mid cycle drawdowns of 20 to 40%, with occasional 50% flushes that wipe out leverage and force weak hands to exit. These are not breakdowns. They are fuel resets.

Structurally, #BTC still prints higher highs and higher lows. Corrections compress volatility, rebuild liquidity, and set the stage for the next expansion leg.

Historically, the deepest fear zones marked the best entries, not the top.
If this cycle follows the script, this is consolidation before acceleration, not the end.
#CryptoZeno #WhenWillBTCRebound

#Gold at Extreme Liquidity Premium While #Bitcoin Trades at Deep Liquidity Discount - A Rare Relative Value Setup

Gold’s global liquidity oscillator is pushing toward +2σ, signaling historical overextension versus macro liquidity conditions.

Bitcoin’s liquidity oscillator is pressing into -2σ territory, reflecting extreme undervaluation relative to the same backdrop.

The BTC/Gold relative liquidity Z-score is now at cycle lows on one side gold is pricing tight liquidity as strength, on the other side $BTC is pricing it as stress. Mean reversion between these two has historically been violent.
#CryptoZeno #GoldSilverRally

#Gold at Extreme Liquidity Premium While #bitcoin Trades at Deep Liquidity Discount - A Rare Relative Value Setup
Gold’s global liquidity oscillator is pushing toward +2σ, signaling historical overextension versus macro liquidity conditions.
Bitcoin’s liquidity oscillator is pressing into -2σ territory, reflecting extreme undervaluation relative to the same backdrop.
The BTC/Gold relative liquidity Z-score is now at cycle lows on one side gold is pricing tight liquidity as strength, on the other side $BTC is pricing it as stress. Mean reversion between these two has historically been violent.
#CryptoZeno #GoldSilverRally #USRetailSalesMissForecast