Selling pressure on Bitcoin appears to be easing as inflows to centralized exchanges slow, reducing immediate downside pressure on the market’s largest digital asset. However, large holders — commonly referred to as whales — continue to dominate exchange activity, signaling that significant distribution may still be underway.
According to recent on-chain data, exchange inflows peaked at roughly 60,000 BTC on February 6, when Bitcoin’s price dropped toward the $60,000 level. Over the past seven days, that figure has declined sharply to an average near 23,000 BTC, indicating that the intense wave of sell-side liquidity seen earlier this month has cooled.
While inflows remain elevated compared to previous months, the slowdown suggests that aggressive panic selling has subsided. Lower exchange deposits generally translate to reduced immediate selling pressure, offering short-term price stabilization.
Whale Dominance Reaches Historic Levels
Despite the decline in overall inflows, the composition of deposits reveals a more concerning trend.
CryptoQuant’s Exchange Whale Ratio — a metric measuring the share of the top 10 inflows relative to total exchange deposits — has climbed to 0.64, its highest level since 2015. This means 64% of all Bitcoin sent to exchanges originates from just 10 large addresses, strongly implying that institutional players or high-net-worth investors are actively offloading holdings.
Elevated whale ratios often precede increased volatility, as large transfers to exchanges typically signal intent to sell or rebalance positions.
A “Great Redistribution” of Bitcoin Supply
Large-scale distribution has been a defining narrative throughout 2025, during which an unprecedented volume of Bitcoin changed hands. On-chain analyst J.A. Maartun describes the ongoing shift as a “major redistribution event,” where long-term holders transfer coins to new market participants in multiple waves.
Historically, such redistribution phases occur near late-cycle transitions, when early investors gradually exit positions while new buyers absorb supply.
Price Action and Market Structure
Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,080 in October, before correcting roughly 46%. The asset is now trading near $67,500, reflecting a prolonged consolidation phase following its historic rally.
Short-term bullish momentum remains uncertain.
Previous CryptoQuant cycle modeling suggests a potential bear-cycle bottom near $55,000, a level many analysts consider critical structural support.
Stablecoin Liquidity (“Dry Powder”) Declining
Exchange flow data also indicates that available buying power is shrinking.
The supply of Tether (USDT) moving onto exchanges — often viewed as “dry powder” ready to purchase crypto — has been decreasing. Historically, strong rallies are accompanied by rising stablecoin inflows, signaling fresh capital entering the market.
Without this liquidity expansion, upside breakouts may struggle to sustain momentum.
Market Sentiment Turns Cautious
On Myriad, a prediction market operated by Dastan, users currently lean bearish. Market odds imply a 57% probability that Bitcoin could revisit $55,000 before potentially rebounding toward $84,000.
This cautious outlook reflects uncertainty surrounding liquidity conditions, macroeconomic pressures, and ongoing whale distribution.
What This Means for Traders
Key signals to monitor:
• Exchange inflow trends
• Whale ratio movements
• Stablecoin liquidity flows
• Support near $55K
• Institutional selling pressure
A sustained decline in whale-driven inflows combined with rising stablecoin deposits could signal renewed bullish momentum. Conversely, continued whale distribution may prolong consolidation or trigger further downside volatility.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.
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