Fed funds futures are pricing ~97% odds of a rate hold at the next meeting.
That says a lot about positioning.
Markets aren’t reacting to headlines they’re reacting to liquidity expectations.
If hold odds are this high, it means:
– Inflation is still seen as sticky
– The Fed isn’t rushing to cut
– Risk assets won’t get easy liquidity fuel
No surprise move = less volatility shock.
But also no stimulus tailwind.
This is a “wait and absorb” phase.
When policy certainty rises this much, the real move usually comes from positioning imbalance not the news.
Stay sharp and updated.
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