🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱 The economic shock of an Iran war will affect the world in "four waves"
The impact of this war is not limited to rising energy prices; rather, it will spread to various sectors and continue for years, per Al-Jazeera
1️⃣ The first wave is what everyone is currently seeing: crude oil prices rise, followed by an increase in liquefied natural gas prices, higher transportation costs, and media reports of energy inflation.
2️⃣ The second wave is the damage to the global trade system itself. Changes that gradually accumulate during a crisis and are unwilling to return to their previous state after the crisis ends.
3️⃣ The third wave is the complex economic impact on countries in the Global South. These shocks occur through reduced imports, a fall in the value of national currencies, rationing of chemical fertilizers, and an increase in food prices.
4️⃣ The fourth wave is political. Supply chain shocks also erode social contracts. There are countries that are already facing depleted reserves, limited fiscal space, and people who have endured shock after shock since the COVID-19 pandemic.
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