powellremarks

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 FED 2026 - 2027 🔔
🇺🇸 FED ADMITS KALSHI FORECASTS BEAT PROFESSIONAL ECONOMISTS 🧠📊

A new study from the U.S. Federal Reserve has publicly acknowledged that Kalshi’s real-time probability forecasting platform has outperformed:
✔ Fed Funds Futures
✔ Professional economist surveys
— in predicting Federal Funds Rate outcomes and inflation (CPI) on the day of every FOMC meeting since 2022. Instead of a single point estimate, Kalshi’s forecast shows a full probability distribution, giving markets a richer, continuously updated view of expectations than traditional tools. This admission marks a major milestone in how markets forecast and price macro outcomes.
⸻

🧠 Why This Matters to Markets
📊 1) Better Signals = Better Positioning
Kalshi’s probabilistic model provides:
✔ Distribution of outcomes
✔ Real-time shifts based on live trading
✔ More accurate signals than surveys
This empowers traders to interpret macro expectation changes before they show up in futures or policy.
⸻

📉 2) Markets Price Expectations — Not Opinions
Traditional economist forecasts are static and slow.
Kalshi moves with market beliefs, detecting shifts faster.
That means:
• Rate odds adjust quicker
• Volatility pricing is sharper
• Macro-dependent assets adjust faster
This is a paradigm shift in macro forecasting.
⸻

🔄 3) Traders Can Use This Info
Instead of reacting to Fed statements after the fact, traders can now monitor Kalshi probability changes to tailor:
• Interest rate trades
• Bond curve positioning
• FX strategies
• Inflation hedges
• Macro-sensitive equities & crypto
This creates a leading edge.
⸻
📣 The Fed now admits Kalshi’s probability forecasts beat economist surveys and Fed Funds futures. 🧠
Real-time macro signals for traders: welcome to the future. 🔥

BREAKING: 🌟 $ENSO +41% 🔔
BREAKING: 🌟 $AWE -41% 🔔

#Fed #SEC #PowellRemarks #MarketRebound #StrategyBTCPurchase

🚨 Breaking: FOMC Minutes Reveal Fed Fear — Rate Cuts Not Coming Soon

FOMC minutes released today from the January 27–28, 2026 meeting confirm the Fed is still not ready to cut rates and wants more proof that inflation is fully under control.

👉 The Fed clearly stated:

"Participants indicated that they would need to see further evidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent before considering adjustments."

👉 They also warned:

"Participants noted the risks of easing policy too soon and emphasized maintaining a restrictive policy stance."

This stance was originally based on November and December inflation and labor data. But the recent January CPI and jobs data also do not justify rate cuts yet.

January CPI YoY dropped closer to target, which looks positive on the surface. But monthly CPI still increased, and the CPI index itself moved higher — meaning prices are still rising, just at a slower pace.

At the same time, January jobs data remained strong. Employment is stable, and the labor market is not weakening enough to force the Fed to inject liquidity.

This creates a clear situation.

Inflation is improving, but not fully solved.
Economy is stable, not weak.
So the Fed has no urgency to cut rates.

Rate cuts happen when inflation is fully controlled or the economy weakens. Right now, neither condition is fully met.

This confirms liquidity will remain restricted until inflation shows sustained decline and labor market softens.

Crypto rallied earlier expecting early rate cuts. But the latest FOMC minutes, combined with January CPI and jobs data, confirm the Fed is still in wait-and-watch mode.

$OM $XAG $SOL #StrategyBTCPurchase #FOMCMeeting #PowellRemarks

🚨 El senador Thom Tillis acaba de bloquear la elección de Kevin Warsh como presidente de la Reserva Federal — ¿Qué pasa ahora? 🚨

Se esperaba que Kevin Warsh fuera el próximo presidente de la Reserva Federal después de que Trump lo nominara. Pero ahora ese proceso ha chocado con una pared. El senador Thom Tillis ha bloqueado la confirmación en la etapa del Comité Bancario del Senado, lo que significa que Warsh no puede avanzar a una votación en el Senado completo. Por ahora, Jerome Powell sigue al mando.

La verdadera razón detrás de esto es la investigación en curso del DOJ sobre Powell. La investigación se centra en si Powell engañó al Congreso sobre el proyecto de renovación de edificios de $2.5 mil millones de la Fed. Tillis dejó claro que no quiere que ocurra ninguna transición de liderazgo mientras esta investigación esté sin resolver.

Desde su punto de vista, reemplazar a un presidente de la Fed que está bajo investigación podría generar serias dudas sobre la presión política y la independencia de la Fed. Así que, en lugar de apresurar la transición, eligió detenerla por completo hasta que haya claridad.

Lo que esto significa en la práctica es simple. Nada cambia de inmediato. Powell se queda. La dirección actual de la política se mantiene. El entorno de liquidez se mantiene predecible.

👉 Mi opinión es que esto se trata más de tiempo que de resultado. La transición en sí no está cancelada, pero ahora depende completamente de cómo se desarrolle esta investigación. Hasta que esa incertidumbre se aclare, el sistema permanece bajo el control de Powell.

Los mercados no reaccionan solo a las nominaciones. Reaccionan al cambio confirmado. Y en este momento, ese cambio está en espera.

$BTC $ETH $XRP #PowellRemarks

🚨 Senator Thom Tillis Just Blocked Trump’s Fed Chair Pick Kevin Warsh — What Happens Next? 🚨

Kevin Warsh was expected to be the next Federal Reserve Chair after Trump nominated him. But now that process has hit a wall. Senator Thom Tillis has blocked the confirmation at the Senate Banking Committee stage, which means Warsh cannot move forward to a full Senate vote. For now, Jerome Powell remains in control.

The real reason behind this is the ongoing DOJ investigation into Powell. The investigation is focused on whether Powell misled Congress about the Fed’s $2.5 billion building renovation project. Tillis made it clear he does not want any leadership transition happening while this investigation is unresolved.

From his point of view, replacing a Fed Chair who is under investigation could raise serious questions about political pressure and Fed independence. So instead of rushing the transition, he chose to stop it completely until there is clarity.

What this means in practice is simple. Nothing changes immediately. Powell stays. The current policy direction stays. The liquidity environment stays predictable.

👉 My take is this is more about timing than outcome. The transition itself is not cancelled, but now it depends entirely on how this investigation plays out. Until that uncertainty clears, the system stays under Powell’s control.

Markets don’t react to nominations alone. They react to confirmed change. And right now, that change is on hold.

$BTC $ETH $XRP #PowellRemarks

🚨 $SENT ALERT 🚨
Still early 👀
Interest growing fast 📈
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🚨 $ALLO ALERT 🚨
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Momentum growing 📈
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🚨 $ZEC ALERT 🚨
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🚨 $BANK ALERT 🚨
Still early 👀
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🚨 Why $BTC Pumped on CPI News Despite Rising Core Inflation — The Real Reason

I missed one important data point in my previous CPI post — the headline CPI YoY. Sorry for that. My focus was mainly on rate cut probability, so I emphasized Core CPI and CPI index. But the headline CPI YoY is the main reason behind today’s BTC pump.

Official data showed CPI YoY dropped from 2.7% → 2.4%. This gave markets a bullish signal and increased expectations of future rate cuts. That triggered buying and short covering, pushing BTC upward.

However, the full inflation structure is still not fully bullish.

Core CPI MoM increased from 0.2% → 0.3%
CPI index increased from 324.054 → 325.252

This shows inflation is still expanding on a monthly basis.

This pump also happened on a Friday, when liquidity is thinner. In such conditions, even smaller inflows can move price faster, which can amplify short-term moves.

Most importantly, the Fed’s target is 2.0% inflation, and current inflation at 2.4% is still above that level. This means rate cuts are not confirmed yet and will depend on further consistent cooling.

👉 In summary:
BTC pumped due to headline CPI cooling
Core CPI and CPI index show inflation still exists

Rate cuts are not confirmed yet
Near-term moves can be volatile and fragile

This makes the current pump more expectation-driven, with risk of instability if inflation does not continue cooling.

#CPIWatch #WriteToEarnUpgrade #PowellRemarks

$ETH $XRP

🚨 URGENT SHOCK: CPI Just Killed Rate Cut Hopes — $BTC Now Sitting at a Breaking Point 🚨

The CPI data just came out — and it confirmed the exact macro pressure BTC cannot ignore.

Core CPI printed +0.3%, higher than last month’s +0.2%.

The CPI index jumped from 324.054 → 325.252.

👉 This tells one simple thing: inflation is not cooling anymore.

And when inflation stops cooling, the Fed stops easing.

We already saw what happened in December. Even with lower Core CPI, the Fed refused to cut. Liquidity didn’t come, expectations reset, and BTC dropped once reality hit the market.

Now Core CPI has moved back up.
This completely shuts down the probability of near-term rate cuts.

And importantly, this matches the CPI structure I shared earlier — showing inflation stabilizing and the CPI index moving into the 325 range. The official release just confirmed that pressure was real, not temporary.

This is where the real risk begins.
BTC right now is not moving freely. It’s sitting in compression while liquidity conditions remain tight. When liquidity doesn’t expand, upside cannot sustain — and eventually price is forced to resolve.

Under current conditions, there is no realistic path for BTC to reclaim $90K this month. Without Fed easing, $100K is not achievable.

This isn’t emotion. This is liquidity math.
The Fed isn’t easing.
Liquidity isn’t expanding.
And BTC is now sitting at a confirmed breaking point.

Follow MeowAlert if you don’t want to miss the macro signals and early data shifts that move the market before everyone else sees them.

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🚨 $OM ALERT 🚨
Still early 👀
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🚨 Pre-CPI Highlight: My Leak Signals $BTC About to Snap as Market Hits Critical Breaking Point

In December, Core CPI printed +0.2%, and even with that lower inflation number, Powell didn’t give any rate cut. The Fed made it clear inflation was still not at a level that justified easing.

BTC reacted immediately after that. Once markets understood liquidity wasn’t coming, price dropped hard.
Now look at what’s forming going into this CPI.

My reconstructed inputs show Core CPI tracking closer to +0.3%, and the CPI index rising from 324.054 → around 325.0 range. That confirms inflation isn’t cooling further. It’s starting to move higher again.
This is the critical part.

If the Fed didn’t cut when Core CPI was +0.2%, there is no logical reason for them to shift stance if Core CPI rises back toward +0.3%. That keeps financial conditions tight and removes any near-term liquidity expansion.

And without liquidity expansion, BTC cannot sustain major upside moves.

Right now BTC is sitting in a compressed structure while macro pressure builds underneath. Liquidity is stacked on both sides, and this type of compression always resolves once macro confirmation arrives.

December CPI triggered a drop because the market repriced Fed expectations.
This CPI has the structure to trigger another repricing, because inflation pressure is increasing again — not decreasing.

Based on this data shift, there is no realistic path for BTC to reach $100K or even reclaim the $90K range this month under current inflation conditions.

Liquidity isn’t expanding. Inflation isn’t cooling. And the Fed has no reason to ease.

BTC is sitting at a breaking point.
My leak confirms the pressure has returned.

This CPI reconstruction is based on my independent inputs, internal modeling, and formula-based calculations using CPI structure and component data. Always wait for official BLS confirmation and manage risk accordingly.

$OM $ETH #CPIWatch #PowellRemarks

🚨 JPMorgan Warns Hawkish CPI Could Push $BTC Toward a $60K Liquidity Breakdown 📉📉

JPMorgan just warned that a hawkish CPI print could push BTC toward the $60K level, as tighter monetary conditions would reduce liquidity across risk assets.

Their logic is clear. If CPI comes in higher, the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. That means less liquidity entering the system. And BTC depends heavily on liquidity expansion to sustain higher prices.

During tight liquidity phases, institutional buyers slow down, leverage becomes fragile, and sell pressure increases. This creates a natural pull toward lower liquidity zones where stronger spot demand exists. JPMorgan specifically highlighted $60K as one of those key structural support levels.

What makes this situation risky is that BTC still appears stable on the surface. But underneath, liquidity is weakening and macro pressure is building.

If CPI confirms hawkish conditions, BTC doesn’t need panic to fall. Liquidity alone can push it toward $60K.

$OM $PIPPIN #CPIWatch #PowellRemarks

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Still early 👀
Interest growing 📈
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Still early 👀
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🚨 $BERA ALERT 🚨
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