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The past few years have been a rollercoaster ride for Arm Holdings (
ARM
6.89%
). In late 2020, Nvidia unveiled plans to acquire the chip designer from SoftBank Group for a head-turning $40 billion. The joy in tech land didn't last: The deal was called off in early 2022 when the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) sued to block the marriage. Arm consoled itself by announcing its initial public offering (IPO), and the stock began trading on Sept. 14, 20
Since its public debut, Arm stock has gained more than 200%, far outpacing the 45% gains of the S&P 500 during the same period.
As impressive as that is, Arm has audacious growth plans that could push the stock up another 300% over the next five years.
Arm doesn't have the name recognition of many of its chipmaking peers, but the company reaches into every corner of the tech world. In a regulatory filing, Arm noted that "We architect, develop, and license high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology." The company goes on to say that its CPUs are found in 99% of the world's smartphones and power the vast majority of the world's software.
That isn't hyperbole. Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and Advanced Micro Devices all have Arm's chip designs at the heart of their products. In all, more than 350 billion ARM-based chips have shipped to date, and the company is only just getting started.
Arm has historically made money by collecting license fees and royalties on its cutting-edge semiconductor designs, a strategy that has been extremely lucrative. In its fiscal 2026 third quarter (ended Dec. 31), Arm generated revenue of $1.2 billion, up 26% year over year, resulting in a gross margin exceeding 97%. The company spent heavily on research and development (R&D) (more on that in a minute), so its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.43 climbed just 10%
However, Arm just made a game-changing announcement that it says will drive its revenue up more than fivefold and send its profits to the next level.
Arm's heavy R&D spending yielded big results. The company recently announced the development of its physical silicon for the first time, with the debut of the Arm AGI CPU, a chip it designed specifically for running AI in the data center. The chip boasts 64 CPUs at its heart, armed with 8,700 cores, and "ruthlessly optimized" for AI.
The company already has some of the biggest names in tech lining up to buy its inaugural chip, including Meta Platforms, Cloudflare, SAP, and OpenAI, among others.
Management has run the numbers and expects sales of the Arm AGI CPU to soar in the coming years, generating $15 billion in annual revenue by fiscal 2031 (which ends in May 2031). What's more, the company is forecasting total revenue of $25 billion for the year, which should drive EPS to $9. That would increase the top and bottom line by more than 5x in as many years.
Arm Holdings currently has a stock price of roughly $157 (as of this writing) and a price-to-earnings ratio of 206, though the stock is trading for 73 times next year's expected earnings. If management can achieve the company's lofty goal of generating earnings per share of $9 in fiscal 2031 -- and applying the more conservative multiple of 73 times -- the stock price would soar to $657, an increase of 318%.
It's also important to point out that even minor changes to any of the variables in this equation would change the outlook, so it's only fun with numbers.
What investors really want to know is whether Arm's outlook is realistic or just pie-in-the-sky thinking. Breaking the forecast down into its parts provides context. Arm is expected to generate revenue of nearly $5 billion for fiscal 2026 (which ends March 31), so it would only take annualized growth of 15% in its legacy business to reach $10 billion over five years. So far, so good.
The big question is whether Arm can generate $15 billion in annual sales from its new Arm AGI AI chip. Management said it already has a clear "line of sight" to over $1 billion in demand for its inaugural offering, with more on the way.
Moreover, executives said, "the chip business is targeting customers who either don't have the internal resources or don't have the desire to develop their own chips." In that case, it wouldn't cannibalize Arm's highly profitable licensing and royalties business. Furthermore, rumors suggest the company has other home-grown chips on the drawing board, which would make the $15 billion target much more reasonable. Only time will tell.
While Arm has its work cut out for it, the plan certainly has its merits. Assuming management's estimates are correct, the stock is currently selling for about 17 times estimated 2031 earnings. Looking back five years from now, that might seem like a bargain -- particularly if Arm's chipmaking business expands.
I think there's a strong argument that buying a small stake in Arm could give your portfolio a shot in the arm in years to come.
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McGlone links bitcoin’s downturn to record U.S. market cap-to-GDP levels, low equity volatility and rising gold prices, warning of potential contagion into stocks.
After climbing back to $70,841 by 07:00 UTC on Feb. 15 from $65,395 late on Feb. 12, bitcoin was hovering around $68,800 by mid-morning. The broader crypto market was also in the red Monday, with 85 of the top 100 tokens posting losses. Privacy-focused coins monero and zcash were down 10% and 8%, respectively over the past 24 hours.
Healthy Correction is what we should hear soon from stock market analysts (who risk unemployment if not onboard), following collapsing cryptos,” McGlone wrote. “The buy the dips mantra since 2008 may be over.”
McGlone pointed to several macro indicators that reflect elevated risk conditions. U.S. stock market capitalization relative to gross domestic product (GDP) has reached its highest level in roughly a century, he noted. At the same time, 180-day volatility in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is at its lowest level in about eight years, McGlone added.
He also described the “crypto bubble” as “imploding,” adding that “Trump euphoria” has peaked and is contributing to contagion across markets. Meanwhile, gold and silver are “grabbing alpha” at a pace last seen about half a century ago, with rising volatility that he said could “trickle up” into equities.
McGlone shared a chart comparing bitcoin divided by 10 for scaling, with the S&P 500. As of Feb. 13, both were hovering below 7,000 on his graphic. He said that “volatile and beta-dependent” bitcoin is unlikely to stay above that level if broader equity beta weakens.
The Bloomberg analyst identified 5,600 on the S&P 500, equivalent to roughly $56,000 for bitcoin under his scaling, as an initial “normal reversion” level. Beyond that, part of his base case calls for bitcoin to revert toward $10,000, contingent on a peak in the U.S. stock market.
McGlone’s outlook splits opinion
Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam and a market analyst, told CoinDesk that McGlone’s thesis assumes market extremes must resolve through collapse and that bitcoin’s equity beta g
That’s false equivalence and single-path bias,” Fernandes said. “Markets can also resolve excess through time, rotation, or inflation erosion. A macro slowdown could mean consolidation or a $40,000 to $50,000 reset, not a systemic unwind to $10,000.”
Fernandes added that a move toward $10,000 would likely require a true systemic event, including sharp liquidity contraction, widening credit spreads, forced deleveraging across funds and a disorderly equity drawdown.
That implies recession plus financial stress, not just slower growth,” he said. “Absent a credit shock or policy mistake that drains global liquidity, that kind of collapse remains a low-probability tail risk.”
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Different Architectures, Different Institutional Narratives
Hedera operates on a hashgraph-based distributed ledger, rather than a traditional blockchain. The network promotes faster transaction speeds, predictable fees, and enterprise-focused infrastructure, features designed for organizations that require cost stability and operational reliability. Its governing council includes major global technology and industrial firms, reinforcing the project’s enterprise-centric positioning.
This structure has helped Hedera develop a reputation as a network aligned with real-world asset tokenization and corporate integrations, themes expected to expand as financial institutions explore blockchain settlement and digital asset infrastructure. If tokenized assets grow into a major financial trend, Hedera’s enterprise partnerships could translate into stronger institutional usage.
Cardano, by contrast, has built its identity around research-driven development and community-led ecosystem growth. The network has often faced criticism for slow upgrades, yet its methodical approach has created a loyal developer and user base. Recent data showing large holders accumulating significant amounts of ADA has fueled speculation that long-term participants may be positioning ahead of future network developments.
Cardano has also seen broader institutional exposure through the launch of regulated derivatives products and increased representation in digital-asset investment funds, developments that could expand access for professional market participants.
Market Potential and Growth Scenarios
From a valuation perspective, Hedera’s smaller market capitalization gives it a theoretical advantage in percentage upside if capital flows return to mid-cap altcoins. A return to its previous cycle high would represent several-fold gains, though such outcomes depend heavily on broader market conditions and measurable network usage growth.
Cardano, already larger by market value, would require significantly more capital inflows to revisit previous peak levels. However, its global community, brand recognition, and expanding ecosystem continue to provide structural support, particularly during cycles when retail participation rises.
The contrast between the two projects reflects a broader divide in crypto markets
Institutional vs. Community Strength
Cardano continues to rely on ecosystem expansion, developer adoption, and a strong global community.
Hedera is positioning itself around institutional adoption, enterprise partnerships, and tokenized financial infrastructure.
Neither network has a guaranteed path to dominance, and both remain sensitive to overall market liquidity, regulatory developments, and Bitcoin’s broader trend. The next cycle may reward projects that show real usage growth rather than purely speculative interest, placing both Hedera’s enterprise integrations and Cardano’s ecosystem expansion under close observation.
Both strategies have historically driven different types of market performance. Enterprise-focused adoption tends to develop gradually but can support long-term stability, while community-driven ecosystems often experience faster sentiment-driven price cycles.
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Gold stands tall above $5,150 amid trade, economic and geopolitical concerns linger.
The US Dollar licks wounds as ‘Sell America’ theme resurfaces on Trump’s tariff woes.
Gold cracks the critical 61.8% Fibo resistance at $5,142, awaits a daily closing above it.
Gold is adding over 1% early Monday, after having gained 2% on Friday. The bright metal scales key technical hurdles, as buyers stay strong amid renewed tariffs and economic uncertainty alongside looming US-Iran geopolitical tensions.
Gold eyes more upside on tariff jitters
Gold kicks off the week with a bang as US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements spark confusion and dent investors’ confidence, fuelling a flight to safety and ‘sell America’ theme once again across the financial markets.
The US Supreme Court on Friday rejected Trump’s emergency tariffs, prompting the President to announce a new 10% rate on the rest of the world, only to then lift it to 15%. The move rekindled market concerns over a highly uncertain and volatile environment, acting as a headwind for the US assets, including the US Dollar (USD).
The US Treasuries were also negatively hit as Trump’s latest tariffs raised the possibility of the US government having to repay around $170 billion in revenue.
Additionally, markets also preferred to flock to the traditional store of value, Gold, amid unimpressive US economic data and nervousness ahead of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) pioneer Nvidia’s earnings report this week.
Data showed US economic growth slowed sharply to a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter (Q4), well under the market forecast of 3%, while the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price index, rose 3% annually in December, above expectations for a 2.9% increase.
Traders still expect at least 50 basis points (bps) of interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, with the first expected in June. Gold thrives on lower rates.
In the week ahead, Gold will continue to rejoice haven demand, with Chinese traders returning from a week-long holiday on Tuesday and reacting to Trump’s tariff news. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks also remain on the rise ahead of the second round of talks between the United States (US) and Iran in Geneva on Thursday.
Nvidia earnings on Wednesday and the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data will ramp up the market volatility later this week as tariff headlines remain the central focus.
The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) rises above the 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs, reflecting firm bullish momentum as all gauges trend higher while price holds above them. The 21-day SMA stands at $5,020.15 and offers nearby dynamic support. The Relative Strength Index (14) sits at 59.76 and is edging higher, reinforcing improving upside momentum without reaching overbought.
Measured from the $5,597.89 high to the $4,401.99 low, the Fibonacci retracement (Fibo) framework shows the 78.6% retracement at $5,341.96 capping the upside. The 61.8% retracement at $5,141.05 has been cleared, and a daily close over that barrier would open room toward the 78.6% Fibo resistance. On pullbacks, the 50-day SMA at $4,723.32 offers a deeper support area.
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