riskassetsmarketshock

Bitcoin 4 hour setting up for a long swing trade. Broader structure is bearish and this is now a confirmed broad Wave 2 (I talked about this possibility for months). This means while price is attempting to retrace, the bigger picture now favors a test of the 59K low, and potentially a test of the lower 50Ks. This is what CHART structure says BUT this can CHANGE VERY QUICKLY based on how the fundamental outlook unfolds over the coming weeks, months.

Short term, a bullish retrace is developing and profit objectives around 73K, 80K are within reason. The more aggressive way to justify risk is WAITING for a retrace into the order block or "demand" zone based on the 4 hour time frame. IF the higher low confirms, risk is relatively low (can be defined by the 60K whole number area) while first reward objective is 70 to 73K region.

The more conservative route is to WAIT for liquidity breaches or price break outs at the "lower high" levels on the chart (break out strategy). 80K, 84K and 90K areas are all bullish confirmations that if compromised, increase the likelihood of a retest of the 95K to 100K area. Again to drive this kind of momentum, there has to be a fundamental catalyst or series of catalysts to help propel such a move. So what can this look like?

We need more weak employment numbers to change the FED's position from no likely rate cut, to pricing a rate cut at next meeting, this would be a good start. NFP was moved to this Wednesday because of backlog at Bureau of Labor Statistics (what's going on here!?). Another area to watch is 10 Year note Yield which has been moving the wrong way. One factor that is aligned is the Manufacturing PMI which servers as a proxy of global liquidity. This number produced a positive print, but not enough to change the short term perception.

Also keep an eye on the the new Fed Chairman nominee Warsh. He is perceived as "bad" for Bitcoin because of his philosophy of shrinking Fed balance sheet which is a negative for global liquidity which Bitcoin and alts depend on. In my opinion he is a trojan horse. Why would he be nominated if he is going to be even more defiant than Powell?

In summary: Short term bullish reversal likely but confirmation required. Keep bullish expectations limited until broader structure changes. Currently in a broad Wave 2 which means bigger picture may be somewhat bearish to range bound for months and/or years. This may unfold like a multiyear Gold consolidation. Keep an eye on broader price structures as they develop in light of oncoming catalysts.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.

✅ Trade here on $BTC
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