ukoil

Today, April 8, 2026, the world breathed a sigh of relief: the United States, Israel, and Iran officially announced a two-week ceasefire. The deal was reached just an hour before Donald Trump's ultimatum expired.
Key points of the agreement:
➖Iranian plan (10 points): Washington accepted Tehran's proposal as a basis for negotiations. It includes the lifting of sanctions, non-aggression guarantees, the withdrawal of some American troops from the region, and recognition of the right to enrich uranium in exchange for the renunciation of nuclear weapons.
➖Strait of Hormuz: Iran agreed to open it for safe navigation, but for a fee (a transit fee of approximately $2 million per vessel), which will be shared with Oman and used to restore Iranian infrastructure.
➖Location: Peace negotiations to finalize the deal will begin this Friday in Islamabad, brokered by Pakistan.
📊 Vilarso's Analysis and Opinion:
This morning, markets immediately reacted to the de-escalation: gold, silver, and Bitcoin showed localized upward momentum amid the "cancellation of the end of the world" narrative. Oil and the dollar index (DXY) predictably declined due to the removal of the war risk premium.
🗣️ My outlook for the next two weeks:
➖Sideways Trap: Despite the positive trend, globally we remain in a wide trading range - Bitcoin is trading sideways at $60K - $80K. The current rally is an emotional "rebound on relief." Without real progress in Islamabad (signing of the final documents), the market will not have the fuel to break out of the sideways trend. ➖The "Sell the News" Effect: April could be treacherous. If negotiations reach an impasse in a week, all of today's gains will be wiped out by one piece of news.
➖Gold vs. Crypto: Gold has begun to recover, but oil is under pressure due to the opening of the Gulf Stream. This creates a backdrop of moderate risk appetite for crypto, but I wouldn't recommend going long all the way right now.
🗓What to expect in April?
The next 14 days are a quiet period, where volatility will be dictated by insider information from Pakistan. If Iran's sanctions conditions stall, we'll see a return to safe haven assets.
➖Strategy: We'll trade from the current sideways range, broken down into trading zones of +/- $60K, $65K, $70K, $75K, and $80K. This is an approximate condition; you can calculate trading zones your own way, for example, using Fibonacci levels, or follow the information in my reviews on TradingView.
➖Keep an eye on the DXY: if it continues to fall below key support levels and stays below $100, this is our green light for a local rally in altcoins. If it's above $100, selling pressure will continue.
➖Caution: The ceasefire is temporary, and Israel has already declared it does not apply to Lebanon and launched a massive bombing campaign. The risk of an accidental spark is still high.
🧠 Analyze and trade with a cool head!
#USA #Iran #BTC #UKOIL