btcusd

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to complete a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, having already broken below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) Support. This comes just weeks after the Head's rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which as we've shown on multiple past analysis historically happened during every BTC Bear Cycle and kick-started new Bearish Legs.
Along with the H&S, this rejection has $65600 as its imminent medium-term Target, which is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension standard Target. As you can see, this happens to be at the top of the first Support Zone of the market.
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A factor that drive's Bitcoin (BTCUSD) prices as a risky asset is money supply (M2). Excess capital in particular that flows towards risky assets when the economic conditions are favorable and flows out when they are not. Basic supply and demand economics.
What better indicator to explain capital circulation and the correlation with BTC than the Global Liquidity (orange trend-line). The metric you see on the chart is a ratio of the largest central bank assets in the world (U.S., ECB, China) and the two dominant currencies (U.S. Dollar Index, Yuan), representing a fair balance of this global economic dynamic.
And as you can see it doesn't fail to put things into context. When liquidity rises aggressively, Bitcoin is on a Bull Cycle. When it corrects, Bitcoin enters a Bear Cycle and this is where we are at now.
The previous two Bear Cycles where concluded when the Global Liquidity reached its 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and rebounded. Right now, we are more than half-way there, which matches very well BTC's 1-year Bear Cycle Model, where we just entered its 2nd (and final) half. A few more months of downside and then we can buy again BTC for the long-term with much lesser risk and greater confidence as investors.
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We have talked about the 4-year Cycles of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) countless times but this is the first time we put them along the smaller phases within them, using the Time Fibonacci levels and the historic Halving events.
Basically we have divided each 4-year Cycle (going from bottom to bottom) into two smaller ones, the Accumulation and Distribution Phases. Those in turn are divided into two smaller ones themselves (4 in total), three Bull Phases and one Bear, which suits perfectly the 4-year Cycle Model that suggests that on average each Bull Cycle lasts 3 years and Bear Cycle 1 year.
As you can see, the Halvings and Time Fibs help at identifying the appropriate action within those smaller Cycles much more efficiently. For example the most effective Accumulation action is typically taken before the Halving, during the first year of the Cycle (first 1/4 mini Cycle). Halvings take place historically around the 0.382 Time Fib (not displayed on the chart because it overlaps the words). Re-accumulation usually takes place on the second 1/4 mini Cycle within the 0.236 - 0.5 Fib Zone, while the most efficient distribution takes place on the third 1/4 mini Cycle.
Right now we are 1 month after the first half of the current Bear Cycle and as shown on multiple previous analysis, the most common Target before it bottoms is $50000, which would also be a contact with the 1W MA350 (red trend-line), where the previous Bear Cycle bottomed.
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