Hyperliquid (HYPE) is hovering near the $30 mark at the time of writing on Saturday, extending a modest rebound of roughly 1% from the previous session. While the price recovery suggests improving short-term momentum, broader market behavior tells a more cautious story. Open Interest (OI) in HYPE futures continues to decline, highlighting reduced risk appetite among traders and signaling that conviction behind the rebound remains fragile.
Despite this hesitation, technical structure suggests HYPE is approaching a pivotal decision zone near $30 — a level that could determine whether the token transitions into a stronger recovery phase or resumes its broader downtrend.
Derivatives Data Signals Weakening Demand
Hyperliquid faces a near-term confidence challenge as the wider crypto market remains under corrective pressure. Following the rollout of HIP-3 — an upgrade enabling futures trading for tokenized commodities on the platform’s decentralized exchange — market attention is now shifting toward the anticipated HIP-4 update. This forthcoming upgrade is expected to introduce prediction markets, potentially expanding the platform’s product ecosystem and attracting new liquidity.
However, futures market dynamics indicate momentum has yet to return.
Data from CoinGlass shows HYPE futures Open Interest standing around $1.30 billion on Saturday but continuing its downward trajectory. This suggests traders are closing positions, reducing leverage, or moving capital to safer opportunities. The trend reflects increasing caution and weakening risk appetite — particularly among retail participants.
Falling OI during a price rebound often indicates that the move is driven by short covering rather than fresh bullish positioning, reinforcing the notion that the current recovery lacks strong participation.
Technical Outlook: Can HYPE Sustain a Break Above $30?
HYPE has been recovering from the pivot S1 support near $28.15 and is now testing the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart around $29.50. At the time of observation, the token posted a mild 1% gain during Saturday trading.
However, price remains below both the 50-period and 200-period EMAs — a technical configuration that still favors the broader bearish trend.
The recovery is now confronting a key resistance zone near $30, where multiple technical barriers converge:
EMA 50 (≈ $29.95)
Descending trendline connecting the Feb 2 and Feb 16 swing highs
Psychological resistance at $30
This confluence forms a critical barrier bulls must overcome to confirm a shift in momentum.
Bullish Scenario
If HYPE secures a decisive close above $30, the breakout could trigger acceleration toward the pivot resistance R1 near $33.40, representing an upside potential of roughly 10% from the breakout zone.
Momentum indicators are beginning to support this scenario:
MACD has crossed above its signal line on the 4-hour chart, suggesting strengthening bullish momentum.
RSI is rising toward the neutral 50 level (currently near 48), indicating weakening selling pressure and improving buying interest.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, failure to hold above the $28.15 support could expose the token to deeper downside risk, with the next pivot support S2 located near $25.60.
Market Sentiment: A Wait-and-See Environment
While Hyperliquid continues expanding its ecosystem and attracting attention through protocol upgrades, traders remain cautious amid broader market uncertainty. The divergence between improving technical momentum and declining derivatives participation underscores a transitional phase — one in which conviction has yet to return.
If upcoming upgrades deliver meaningful adoption and liquidity growth, sentiment could shift quickly. Until then, HYPE remains at a technical crossroads.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
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