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Private-equity firm Blue Owl Capital (OWL) tumbled nearly 15% this week as it was forced to liquidate $1.4 billion in assets to pay investors looking to exit one of its private credit funds.
It stirred some painful memories for those who suffered through the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC).
In August 2007, two Bear Stearns hedge funds collapsed after suffering heavy losses on subprime mortgage-backed securities, while BNP Paribas froze withdrawals in three funds, citing an inability to value U.S. mortgage assets. Credit markets seized up, liquidity evaporated, and what seemed like an isolated incident spiraled into the global financial crisis
Is this a 'canary-in-the-coalmine' moment, similar to August 2007," asked former Pimco head Mohamed El-Erian. "There’s plenty to think about here, starting with the risks of an investing phenomenon in [artificial intelligence] markets that has gone too far," he continued. El-Erian was quick to point out that while the risks could be systemic, they don't appear to be anywhere near the magnitude of the 2008 crisis.
Blue Owl's issue may or may not be another Bear Stearns moment, but if it is, what might that mean for bitcoin?
First, private credit stress doesn't automatically mean bitcoin rallies. In fact, in the short term, tighter credit conditions can hurt risk assets, bitcoin and the broader crypto market among them. While bitcoin wasn't around during the 2008 meltdown (more on that later), the price action as the Covid crisis was unfolding — about a 70% decline from mid-February 2020 to mid-March — is illuminating.
The U.S. government's Federal Reserve's eventual response, though, could be powerfully bullish for bitcoin. In 2020, trillions of dollars were injected into the economy, helping send BTC from a low of below $4,000 to more than $65,000 about a year later.
The 2007-2008 playbook followed a similar trajectory: initial credit market stress, equity market denial, banking sector contagion, then massive central bank intervention. If Blue Owl represents the "first domino" — as former Peter Lynch associate George Noble suggested — the sequence could repeat with private credit replacing subprime mortgages as the trigger.
One of the major outcomes of the 2008 event was the creation of Bitcoin.
Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"
Another major part of the world's largest digital asset was to create a parallel digital currency that would allow direct peer-to-peer online payments without the need for a financial institution or any government intervention. Essentially, hope was to create a direct alternative to a legacy banking system that had just proved fragile enough to bring down the global financial order through the meddling of centralized entities.
The world's original cryptocurrency was born during the global financial crisis, in part because its mysterious creator (or creators), Satoshi Nakamoto, was disillusioned with governments and central banks conjuring up hundreds of billions, if not trillions, of dollars with little more than a few keystrokes on a computer.
Worth essentially zero on that day and unknown to all but a small handful of "cypherpunks," bitcoin, 17 years later, has a market cap topping $1 trillion and has the largest asset managers on the planet calling it a near-essential asset to own for most portfolios.
In fact, Bitcoin's first-ever block, the so-called Genesis Block on Jan. 3, 2009, was embedded by Satoshi with "Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks." That was the headline in The Times of London that day as the U.K. government and the Bank of England engineered a response to the ongoing troubles in that country's financial sector.
Bitcoin, as we now know it, of course, is different from the original cryptocurrency in 2009. Today, the notion of "store of value" and "digital gold" has come and gone. What was supposed to be anti-establishment has become part of the larger financial system. Large holders are hoarding massive amounts of bitcoin on their balance sheets, financial giants are offering bitcoin to the masses via exchange-traded funds, and even some government entities are buying for their strategic reserves.
So does the Blue Owl failure mean another resurgence of Bitcoin's original thesis and, in turn, another bull run? Time will tell, but if this event turns out to be El-Erian's "canary," signalling another sizable crisis, the global financial system might be in for a rude awakening, and Bitcoin might just become the solution, whatever for
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Bitcoin immediately jumped 1.75% to about $67,769, following a breaking news that the Supreme Court has struck down President Trump’s broad tariff regime.
21shares Head of Macro Stephen Coltman noted “a negative ruling on tariffs could potentially hurt Treasuries and the dollar, while favoring stocks and crypto.”
Crypto prices jumped up on Friday morning following news that the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s broad tariff regime.
Bitcoin
BTC+1.49%
immediately jumped 1.75% to about $67,769, according to The Block's price page. Other crypto majors are also in the green. Ethereum
ETH+1.76%
is trading around $1,960, up over 2%, Solana
SOL+3.80%
at $84 is up over 4%, while XRP, which has a large retail trading base, is up 1.55% to $1.42, according to The Block's price
Crypto stocks also rallied, with Bitcoin infrastructure-focused Fold leading the pack, up over 4.6%. Coinbase
CCOIN0%
, often seen as a bellwether stock for the crypto industry, is up 3.52% to $171.78 at the time of writin
The Supreme Court ruled on Friday that Trump lacked the authority to impose sweeping global tariffs. Restrictive trade policies, which some economists said negatively affected the U.S. and global economy, will likely now have to be renegotiated.
Trump has previously said it would be a "complete mess" to unwind his tariff agenda, imposed under the provision of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Though some experts suggest it could be a boon for crypto
21shares Head of Macro Stephen Coltman noted "a negative ruling on tariffs could potentially hurt Treasuries and the dollar, while favoring stocks and crypto."
Bitcoin has been trading within a narrow range for the past two weeks between 65k and 70k, and bulls will be wanting to see 65k hold as a floor," Coltman said earlier Friday. "Conversely, a sustained move above 70k would indicate the recent selling may have exhausted itself.
It's a point echoed by VanEck Head of Research Matthew Sigel, who noted reduced tariff revenues would mean "money printing and debasement will accelerate." Bitcoin is often said to be a hedge against U.S. inflationary monetary policy.. data.
Cato estimated 60% of total tariff revenue in 2025 stemmed from those imposed under the IEEPA.
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