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The Trump Administration has officially slapped Brazil and Canada with tariffs of 50% and 35% respectively, levies that will affect the trading relations between these countries.
On July 30, President Donald Trump signed an executive order making his earlier threats official, stating that this decision was an answer to the Brazilian government’s recent actions, which posed “an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States.”
The White House explained that Brazilian institutions have compelled U.S.-based social network companies to “censor political speech, deplatform users, turn over sensitive U.S. user data, or change their content moderation policies.” The prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a close friend of Trump who allegedly attempted a coup, is also mentioned as a justification for these measures.
Some products will be exempt from paying these taxes, including civil aircraft, precious metals, energy imports, and fertilizers. Coffee, on the other hand, will not.
On July 31, Trump also raised the tariff percentage collected from Canadian imports to 35%, with an executive order stating that Canada has “failed to cooperate in curbing the ongoing flood of fentanyl and other illicit drugs, and it has retaliated against the United States for the President’s actions to address this unusual and extraordinary threat to the United States.”
On Truth Social, Trump also referred to the intention of the Canadian government to recognize the Palestinian state as a pain point to achieve a better trade deal.
In contrast, Trump gave Mexico a 90-day extension of the current deal, which establishes 25% levies on Mexican imports and a 50% tariff on steel, aluminum, and copper. Trump stated that “the complexities of a deal with Mexico are somewhat different than other nations because of both the problems and assets of the border,” stressing that he was getting to “know and understand” Mexican President Claudia Sheimbaun after a phone call.
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At present, three camps have taken shape: those who anticipate a sizable liquidity injection that could lift the U.S. economy and support a prolonged period of expansion. Others hold a bearish view, pointing to structural weaknesses that may overpower even aggressive liquidity efforts, recalling 2008, when capital infusions steadied banks but failed to revive broader consumption, setting the stage for the Great Recession. Then there are those who simply have no idea and are content to watch from the sidelines, popcorn in hand.
The economic expansion camp points to ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus momentum, reinforced by proactive policy signals under Trump 2.0. The U.S. Federal Reserve has already trimmed rates several times, and Trump has hinted that replacing Fed Chair Jerome Powell with a more dovish successor could pave the way for “ultra-dovish” rate cuts and a hefty infusion of liquidity into the economy. Some argue that this liquidity is being timed to help Republicans lock in midterm victories and mend approval ratings.
Many draw historical comparisons to earlier Trump-era policies, often invoking Reagan’s 1980s deregulation, arguing that similar shifts can extend economic growth if liquidity arrives at the right moment. In a recent episode of Token Narratives, Bitcoin.com’s Graham Stone and David Sencil explored this theme, with the conversation ranging across Venezuela, oil markets, and direct liquidity actions, including when Trump directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to jointly buy up to $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from public markets to lower mortgage rates and improve housing affordability.
I mean, look at the news that came out yesterday or while I was sleeping,” Sencil remarked to Stone. “Trump just went out and posted something like, ‘I’m telling Freddie Mac to buy MBS.’ That’s like straight-up 2020, 2008-style QE, righ—just max liquidity. That’s QE. That’s QE infinity. So if that kind of thing does happen, and that’s being articulated in January, what happens when he gets control of the Fed when Powell steps down?
Then there’s the bear camp. This group contends that while the flow of liquidity injections may be unstoppable, it cannot prevent an eventual downturn. Marc Faber, editor of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, expects “doom” in 2026, urging investors to exit U.S. equities as uneven asset price inflation persists and the Federal Reserve loses its grip on bond markets, arguing that the era of “exceptional years” of gains has ended, with inflationary pressure and wider economic strain on the horizon.
Many bears argue that mounting consumer strain and rising debt levels will outweigh liquidity effects, while inflated asset prices—particularly across tech and AI—appear increasingly frothy. They also flag political and global spillover risks, noting that sliding approval ratings for Trump and the 2026 midterms could prompt an early “Trump put.” In short, these analysts contend that the era of quantitative easing has largely passed, and even if interventions return, they may arrive too late to change the outcome.
Many are now assigning meaningful odds to a U.S., and even global, recession in 2026. JPMorgan Global Research pegs the probability of a U.S./global downturn that year at 35%, citing persistent inflation and decelerating growth as the primary headwinds. On prediction markets, the odds appear lower, with Polymarket bettors pricing in a 21% chance, as of Jan. 10, 2026, of a U.S. recession by year’s end. That wager has drawn roughly $140,571 in volume.
A separate Kalshi contract places the odds of a recession beginning in the first quarter at 10%. It is fair to say that whether 2026 delivers a liquidity-fueled continuation of growth or a sharp turn lower remains an open question. Policy cues, market pricing, and historical comparisons are pointing in different directions, leaving investors to balance stimulus rhetoric against debt burdens, inflation pressure, and political timing
For now, markets appear guardedly optimistic, pricing in risk without fully committing to either outcome. That push and pull is likely to shape the year ahead. If liquidity arrives early and with conviction, risk assets could respond favorably, lending weight to the expansion narrative. If it arrives late—or falls short—the bear case could take hold, with recession probabilities quickly marked higher. Until clearer signals emerge, the sidelines may end up being the most crowded trade of all.
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Not long ago, a bitcoin whale made waves by shifting funds from eight separate wallets—each holding a hefty 10,000 BTC—for the first time in more than 14 years. Bitcoin.com News has been tracking these long-idle coins for years. Commonly called “sleeping,” “dormant,” or “inactive” bitcoins, they’re simply units of bitcoin that haven’t budged from their blockchain addresses in ages, often sitting untouched for years on end.
Think of sleeping bitcoins like an old piggy bank tucked away on a shelf—packed with coins, but untouched for years. Since bitcoin lives on a public ledger called the blockchain, where every transaction is visible, coins that sit idle in a wallet without moving are known as “sleeping.” These bitcoins are unique because they carry pieces of Bitcoin’s early story and the people behind it.
At that time, they could be owned by individuals who mined or scooped them up back when bitcoin was practically worthless. The people or groups behind these coins are either holding tight, hoping they’ll be worth even more down the line—or they’ve lost access to their wallets entirely, which could mean that BTC is out of reach for good.
Here’s a solid example of a freshly awakened bitcoin from 2011, following this week’s eye-popping 80,000 BTC move. At block height 904354, someone transferred 0.01011541 BTC that had been untouched since Oct. 30, 2011. While that tiny transaction looked like a mere $1,100 transfer, the same wallet actually moved 13.559 BTC—worth $1.479 million that day.
Moving sleeping bitcoins—those that have sat untouched in blockchain wallets for years—can happen for all sorts of reasons, from personal and financial to technical or strategic. One of the biggest motivators? Cashing in. A lot of these idle coins were snagged by early adopters or miners back when bitcoin was dirt cheap—sometimes under a buck, or even just pennies. Concerns over security or tech issues can also spark the movement of sleeping bitcoins.
Wallets from the early days—think 2009 to 2013—often used old-school software, storage setups, or cryptographic methods that might now be at risk from hacks or hardware breakdowns. In some situations, bitcoins are transferred as part of estate planning or inheritance arrangements. At other times, shifting sleeping coins may serve as a market signal or strategic play—especially when the moves come from heavyweight holders, often called “ whales.”
People keep tabs on sleeping bitcoins with tools that track blockchain activity in real time. For example, 17% of all BTC—around 3.32 million coins—haven’t moved in over a decade. Meanwhile, coins untouched for more than five years make up 30% of the supply, or just over 6 million BTC. There are also unspent coinbase rewards—these are unspent transaction outputs ( UTXOs) from mined blocks where the miner never moved the bitcoin they earned.
Data reveals that 1.76 million bitcoin from unspent coinbase rewards remain untouched since the day they were mined—and it’s estimated that about 1.2 million of those coins came from blocks mined by Satoshi Nakamoto. As sleeping bitcoins awaken, each movement whispers hints of forgotten keys, newly found fortunes, or calculated decisions. Whether treasure or ghost, these silent coins continue to haunt the market—echoes of bitcoin’s past still waiting to be claimed.
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Trump Media and Technology Group Corp. (Nasdaq, NYSE Texas: DJT), the parent company of Truth Social, Truth+, and Truth.Fi, disclosed on Sept. 10 that Yorkville America Equities has filed a registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for five America First-themed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The company stated:
The lineup includes five products—the Truth Social American Icons ETF, Truth Social American Security & Defense ETF, Truth Social American Next Frontiers ETF, Truth Social American Energy Security ETF, and Truth Social American Red State REITs ETF.
Through a collaboration with the 1792 Exchange, the funds will apply a screening process to maintain alignment with the Truth Social brand and America First principles. Trump Media added: “Subject to regulatory approval, the ETFs are expected to launch later this year and be widely available across existing platforms and brokerages. Shares will be listed on NYSE Arca.”
Yorkville America Equities, an affiliate of Yorkville America, will serve as sponsor and registered investment adviser for the ETFs. The Florida-based firm specializes in politically and culturally aligned investment vehicles. While detractors may argue that the launch embeds political ideology into financial products, advocates point to increasing investor appetite for thematic strategies that align with personal values.
During August and September 2025, Trump Media & Technology Group also reinforced its pivot toward cryptocurrency. The company filed an amended registration statement for a bitcoin ETF in August, then announced a collaboration with Crypto.com, involving a treasury of Cronos (CRO) tokens. On Sept. 5, Trump Media finalized the acquisition of 684.4 million CRO through a stock and cash exchange, followed by a Sept. 9 platform upgrade enabling Truth Social users to convert earned “gems” into CRO via Crypto.com’s wallet infrastructure.
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Hours after reclaiming the $79,000 threshold, bitcoin tumbled well below $77,000 as the earlier enthusiasm sparked by reports that Iran had submitted a peace plan to end the Middle East war permanently dissipated. In fact, Bitstamp data show that bitcoin experienced two sharp price drops on April 27, first shortly after it tapped an intraday high of $79,490 around midnight.
After appearing to consolidate below $77,800, the top cryptocurrency briefly topped $78,000 before a sell-off saw it shed approximately $1,500 in under one hour to reach a session low of $76,567. Subsequent attempts to reverse the losses stalled shortly after it breezed past $77,000; at the time of writing, the cryptocurrency traded around $76,700.
With this price action, bitcoin’s 24-hour losses mounted, reaching 1.7%, which helped drag down its market capitalization from around $1.56 trillion observed in the early morning session to $1.54 trillion at 12:45 p.m. EDT.
While bitcoin has spent much of the last few weeks in a tight correlation with global risk assets, Monday’s slide marked a notable decoupling. The cryptocurrency’s decline appeared little more aggressive than the action in European and U.S. equities, which remained largely range-bound and flat.
This downward pressure on the top cryptocurrency stood in stark contrast to the bullish momentum in the Asia-Pacific region. Leading the charge, South Korea’s Kospi index surged to a historic milestone, breaching the 6,600 level for the first time in its history. This regional rally was not entirely uniform, however; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index emerged as a minor outlier, paring gains to close with a marginal 0.2% retreat.
Asian stocks surged alongside bitcoin following reports that Iran submitted a proposal to the Trump administration. However, Western commentators noted that the offer avoids the critical nuclear issue. Although the administration is reportedly reviewing the document, analysts argue that because the conflict originated from disagreements over Iran’s nuclear enrichment, Washington is unlikely to accept the current terms.
Still, with Brent Crude oil prices climbing back above $100 per barrel, some observers suggest the administration may be incentivized to negotiate to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Restoring access to the strait could drive oil prices below $90, providing consumer relief and tempering global recession fears.
Meanwhile, bitcoin’s continued slide on Monday saw $110 million in long bets get liquidated, versus $59 million in shorts. Overall, the crypto economy saw $454 million in leveraged positions wiped out, with long bets accounting for $284 million of the total.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 137 points, or 0.3%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.5%. The S&P 500 extended its fourth consecutive day of gains but remains roughly 4% below levels seen before the U.S.-Iran conflict escalated.
Mediators from Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey floated truce proposals over the weekend, including a 45-day ceasefire framework and a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Conflicting reports say Iran signaled willingness to negotiate access through the waterway, which handles about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade. Other reports note ceasefire talks have been rejected.
Trump called Iran “an active, willing participant” in talks but said its counterproposal fell short. He repeated threats Monday that the U.S. could strike Iranian infrastructure and warned the country could be taken out “in one night” if the strait remained closed past his deadline
West Texas Intermediate crude settled near $103 a barrel and Brent crude near $109. Oil prices swung through the session before closing with modest gains as traders weighed supply disruption risks against any prospect of de-escalation
Technology and consumer staples led sector gains. Ciena Corp., Lumentum, Seagate Technology and Netflix all posted advances. Utilities including CMS Energy and Entergy touched new 52-week highs. Energy shares moved higher on ongoing supply disruption concerns. Consumer discretionary lagged, and Keurig Dr Pepper hit a 52-week low.
The CBOE Volatility Index held above 24, signaling that traders were not ready to fully price out downside risk.
The Institute for Supply Management’s services PMI for March fell to 54.0 from 56.1 in February, missing the economist consensus of 55.4. The prices-paid index climbed to 70.7, its highest reading since October 2022. The employment component dropped to 45.2, its weakest level since December 2023.
No Federal Reserve news and other high-impact data were on the calendar to start the week. The focus remained squarely on the Middle East. At the same time, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned of broader inflation risks tied to the conflict.
Other analysts pointed to strong hiring numbers from the March jobs report and productivity gains from the technology sector as potential offsets. Investors will watch Trump‘s Tuesday deadline closely. Any escalation that keeps oil prices at current levels could complicate the Federal Reserve’s rate path ahead of Friday’s March consumer price index report.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases minutes from its March meeting Wednesday. Delta Air Lines and Constellation Brands are among companies scheduled to report earnings later in the week, marking an early test of how corporate America is absorbing higher energy costs.
Markets remain reactive rather than conviction-driven. Until the Strait of Hormuz situation resolves or inflation data shifts expectations, the near-term direction hinges on factors outside corporate fundamentals.
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From creating a verifiable and transparent history of all agent activity to providing the rails for programmable money and instant value transfer, the blockchain is quickly becoming an indispensable technology for AI agents. According to Rodrigo Coelho, CEO of Edge and Node, without blockchain, “these autonomous exchanges would happen behind closed application programming interfaces (APIs),” lacking visibility and accountability.
While blockchain is indeed destined to become a key enabler of AI agents, Coelho believes the agentic economy’s progress will depend on how quickly the necessary infrastructure is built.
The main challenge now is scale: millions of small transactions and interactions per second. Building the infrastructure for that, from efficient settlement to shared reputation frameworks, will define the next phase of the agentic economy,” the CEO stated.
Until recently, the focus of many AI teams was deploying the next best thing. However, the rise of autonomous agents that make independent decisions has forced them to seriously consider standards. A unified set of standards would encourage organizations to adopt best practices in AI development, ensuring that systems are built with safety and ethics in mind.
For standardization proponents, a collaborative framework can provide guidelines aimed at reducing bias in AI systems. Standards in data collection, model training, and testing promote fairness and equal treatment across different demographics.
However, as Coelho explained in a written response to questions from Bitcoin.com News, “standards only emerge when ecosystems hit a breaking point”—when interoperability and coordination become existential problems. He asserts that the AI industry has reached this point and a remedy is needed now, or else the “agent economy can’t scale.”
To this end, Coelho’s Edge and Node has introduced a solution called Ampersend, which acts as the command center for the agentic economy. It is built upon open standards like Coinbase’s x402 payment protocol, Google’s A2A communication, and Ethereum’s ERC-8004 agent discovery standard.
By building on, rather than replacing, open frameworks, we’re ensuring that the ecosystem remains interoperable, scalable, and inclusive, rather than locked into proprietary systems,” Coelho said.
Turning to regulation, Coelho said while this will likely impact how the agent economy evolves, his team views this as an opportunity, not an obstacle. The real challenge, the CEO argued, is “ensuring that innovation and policy evolve together.”
Coelho also argued that once agents operate autonomously, the system becomes opaque without proper observability. He said:
Agent observability is about restoring transparency and accountability in this environment. It ensures every action is traceable, auditable, and controllable. Without that, coordination breaks down, and risks financial, operational, or security-related multiply.”
According to Coelho, Edge and Node’s solution introduces that visibility layer, which helps teams manage complexity, mitigate risk, and build trust as AI and blockchain systems converge at scale.
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Nobitex, the dominant crypto exchange in Iran, was founded by two brothers from the Kharrazi family, a clan related by marriage to all three supreme leaders of the Islamic Republic, according to a lengthy Reuters investigation published Friday.
Reuters reported that brothers Ali and Mohammad Kharrazi registered the company in 2018 using the surname Aghamir Mohammad Ali, a name they used in corporate filings, university life and a Nobitex marketing brochure, while other relatives publicly use the Kharrazi name. The brothers founded the company alongside chief executive Amir Hosein Rad, who is not related to the family.
Their grandfather reportedly sat on the Assembly of Experts, the body that selects Iran's supreme leader, and once tutored Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father Ali Khamenei as supreme leader after the Feb. 28 U.S. and Israeli airstrike. Their father, Ayatollah Bagher Kharrazi, founded the Iranian political organization Hezbollah, distinct from the Lebanese militia, and according to Reuters helped staff the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) after the 1979 revolution.
Reuters said it traced the link by cross-referencing Iranian corporate, government and banking records, and noted that the email address used to register the Nobitex domain in 2017 contained the Kharrazi name and was also used for a religious charity chaired by the brothers' father.
In a statement to Reuters, Nobitex denied any government affiliation, said the brothers had not changed their identity and characterized any illicit funds moving through the platform as a "very small fraction of overall volume" that occurred without management's awareness. Iran's government did not respond to requests for comment from Reuters
The exchange claims roughly 11 million users and handles about 70% of Iran's crypto activity, according to figures cited in the Reuters report. The Block has previously covered Nobitex's outsized role in the country's sanctioned crypto ecosystem, including $11 billion in lifetime inflows tracked by Chainalysis.
Estimates of illicit volume on Nobitex vary widely across blockchain analytics firms. Reuters cited Elliptic identifying around $366 million in suspect flows, Chainalysis estimating closer to $68 million, and Crystal Intelligence pointing to roughly $22 million in direct transfers from sanctioned wallets. All three firms told Reuters the true figures are likely higher.
A separate Elliptic analysis cited by Reuters found that wallets controlled by the Central Bank of Iran sent about $347 million to Nobitex in the first half of 2025, part of a larger central bank crypto buying program Elliptic has previously documented.
Reuters also reported that one of Nobitex's largest early backers, Mohammad Bagher Nahvi, is vice chairman of Safiran Airport Services, a company sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in September 2022 for coordinating flights tied to Iranian drone shipments to Russia.
A 2025 spat between disgraced Iranian businessman Babak Zanjani and the Central Bank of Iran inadvertently exposed wallet addresses that allowed Crystal Intelligence and another analyst to identify at least $20 million in central bank funds that had been routed through Nobitex, according to Reuters
Nobitex has continued processing transactions throughout the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war in Iran, even during the nationwide internet blackout imposed Feb. 28, Reuters reported, citing Crystal Intelligence and other blockchain analytics firms.
Crystal Intelligence told Reuters that Nobitex has processed more than $100 million in transactions during the war, around 20% of normal activity, while $54 million has been withdrawn from the exchange since the conflict began, with much of it moving abroad to brokers who convert crypto to cash. The Block has previously reported on similar post-strike outflow surges tracked by Chainalysis.
Internet monitoring firm NetBlocks told Reuters that only 1% to 2% of Iranians, those on a "state-approved whitelist," currently have internet access.
The U.S. Treasury announced new sanctions on April 28 targeting what it described as Iran's shadow banking infrastructure, but Nobitex was not among the designated entities. Reuters reported it could find no indication that any member of the Kharrazi family had been sanctioned by Western governments.
In a statement to Reuters, Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., ranking Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, called the findings a "flashing red light" and said adversaries are using digital assets to move funds outside the U.S.-led financial system
Binance, which Reuters previously reported moved $7.8 billion for Nobitex clients despite U.S. sanctions, did not respond to questions from Reuters for the new report. Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao was sentenced to prison in 2024 for money laundering violations and later pardoned by President Donald Trump in 2025
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Historically, the yuan hasn't had much direct pull on BTC prices. Rumors have swirled for years that a weaker yuan pushes Chinese capital into crypto (and vice versa), but there's zero solid proof.
However, swings in the yuan’s value can still affect bitcoin via macroeconomic channels and foreign-exchange markets, according to newsletter service LondonCryptoClub, whose founder said the ongoing strengthening of CNY could bode well for bitcoin's price.
When the yuan is strengthening, it provides the cover for China to step up stimulus and easing to address the deflationary spiral they’re battling," the founders of the newsletter service told CoinDesk.
A strengthening currency makes imports cheaper, thereby putting downward pressure on domestic inflation. This, in turn, creates room for policymakers to provide economic stimulus.
Coincidentally, calls for Chinese stimulus have increased alongside a stronger yuan, following a string of dismal retail sales and corporate investment data released early this week.
This stimulus could compensate for the expected increase in borrowing costs in Japan and Australia and the prospects of slower rate cuts by the Fed, thereby supporting risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Now, coming to the foreign exchange part. A relentless rally in the yuan may prompt the People's Bank of China to intervene by buying dollars against the yuan.
These dollars don't just sit idle; they're recycled or sold against other currencies to maintain a stable currency mix in the reserve portfolio, which holds trillions in major currencies, including the dollar, euros, yen, and others.
This recycling operation ends up dragging the dollar index lower. And as it's well known, a weaker dollar tends to boost demand for dollar-denominated assets like bitcoin and contribute to looser financial conditions (cheaper cash).
Smoothing operations to slow the strength means increasing the money supply as they effectively print CNY to buy dollars. Those dollars also get “recycled”, selling against other currencies to maintain stable FX weightings in their portfolio," founders said.
This feeds broad dollar weakness. Added together, it all feeds into an easier liquidity environment which should be bullish for bitcoin," they added.
The coming weeks will show whether this backdrop can steady bitcoin’s slide and help the market find its footing again.
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The new framework due Jan. 1 will let banks pay interest on clients' e-CNY holdings.
The future digital yuan will be a modern digital payment and circulation means issued and circulated within the financial system, with technical support and supervision provided by the central bank, possessing the attributes of commercial bank liabilities, based on accounts, compatible with distributed ledger technology, and having the functions of a measure of monetary value, store of value, and cross-border payment," Lei wrote.
The plan also proposes to establish an international digital yuan operations centre in Shanghai.
The PBOC began working on the digital yuan program in 2014 under the name of the Digital Currency Electronic Payment or DCEP project to research benefits of the CBDC.
The central bank launched the digital yuan in April 2022. Since then, it has airdropped e-CNY as part of a pilot program to encourage adoption.
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