#bitcoin
📉$BTC on the verge of a historic anti-record: 6 weeks left
The crypto market is entering a turbulent zone. If February closes in the "red zone", we will have a fifth consecutive month of decline - the longest series of failures since 2018. March will be the moment of truth: either a reversal, or an official repetition of the worst period in BTC history.
What is happening to the "digital gold"?
Bitcoin is currently trading around $68,800, which is almost 45% below the October peak of $126,000. The market has changed: after the appearance of spot ETFs, Bitcoin began to correlate with the macroeconomics and Fed rates. Over the past 3 weeks, net outflows from ETFs have been around $2 billion.
🗺 Three scenarios for the next 4–12 weeks:
1. ⚖️ Stabilization (Sidewalk):
• Condition: Slowing outflows from ETFs, protection of the support zone by buyers.
• Levels: Maintaining the corridor $66,900 – $70,600.
2. 🐻 Deep dive (Deleveraging):
• Condition: Surrender at current levels, continuation of the Fed’s “high rates” policy.
• Levels: Test $60,000, with a potential drop to the “realized price” of $55,800. Some analysts (Barron’s) see the bottom of the cycle around $49,000.
3. 🚀 Reclaim:
• Condition: Return of institutional capital and softening of the rhetoric of macro regulators.
• Target: Consolidation above $80,200.
⚠️ Extreme Forecasts
Ned Davis Research analysts warn that if the current cycle repeats the classic "cryptozyme" scenario (84% drop), the price could slide to $31,000. Zacks strategists also do not rule out a path to $40,000 in the event of worsening liquidity.
