Brad Garlinghouse just dropped a bombshell.
The Ripple CEO now puts 90% odds that the CLARITY Act becomes law by the end of April 2026 .
This isn't just hopium. This follows a White House meeting between crypto and banking leaders, including Ripple CLO Stuart Alderoty, Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal, and a16z representatives .
Let me break down exactly what this means for XRP and where we stand right now.
THE CLARITY ACT: WHAT'S AT STAKE
This legislation would finally define whether a digital asset is a security or a commodity, establishing clear jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC .
The Current Sticking Point:
Banks want a broad ban on stablecoin yields (they see it as a threat to deposits)
Crypto firms argue this stifles innovation
A compromise is being negotiated with a White House deadline of end of February
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong says there's now "a path forward where we can get a win-win-win outcome – for crypto, banks, and American consumers" .
THE BITCOIN FRACTAL CONNECTION
Here's where it gets interesting for XRP holders.
Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO has highlighted a fractal comparison between XRP's current structure and a previous Bitcoin pattern .
Key points:
The pattern shows structural similarities but different timing
XRP is near what the analyst labels a "bottom zone"
The Bitcoin example shows subsequent upward expansion
While fractals are never perfect predictors, this alignment with a major regulatory catalyst is worth watching.
XRP PRICE ACTION: THE REALITY CHECK
Let's be real about where XRP stands right now:
📉 Current Price: ~$1.42 (down 4.55% on the day)
💧 Market Cap Drop: $5.61 billion erased in 24 hours (from $90.5B to $84.9B)
📊 24h Range: $1.45 support to $1.61 resistance
⚠️ RSI: 39.02 – edging toward oversold
📈 XRP/BTC: Actually UP 5.1% against Bitcoin despite USD weakness
Critical levels to watch:
Support: $1.44 (daily pivot), $1.35 (next major zone)
Resistance: $1.61, then $1.70
THE MARKET CONTEXT
XRP isn't bleeding alone. The broader market is under pressure from:
Hawkish FOMC minutes – Fed officials signaled possible rate hikes if inflation stays sticky
Geopolitical tension – US-Iran concerns reducing risk appetite
Bitcoin below $67,000 – BTC at $66,700, dragging altcoins down
Total market cap fell ~1.9%, with $223 million in liquidations (mostly longs) .
THE GARLINGHOUSE VISION
Beyond the immediate price action, Garlinghouse is playing the long game. At XRP Community Day, he:
Called XRP Ripple's "North Star" – the core of products like Ripple Payments, Custody, and RLUSD
Likened Ripple to Amazon – building infrastructure, not just a crypto company
Announced acquisitions: Metaco ($250M, custody) and Hidden Road ($1.25B, prime brokerage)
His message: Focus on the trillions of dollars of infrastructure, not the daily price wobbles.
We're at a fascinating intersection:
📜 Regulatory catalyst: 90% odds of Clarity Act by April
📊 Technical setup: Bitcoin fractal suggesting bottom zone
📉 Market reality: Short-term bearish pressure from macro
The prediction markets are uncertain – Kalshi odds for passage before June spiked to 85% then slid back to 46% . That volatility reflects real debate.
