Energy Independence Myth :

JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest argues US energy independence won't shield the economy from oil price shocks, as fossil fuels still comprise 85% of US energy consumption. Global oil price increases transmit at over 100% to domestic fuel costs.

Long Conflict Expected :

The report warns markets are too optimistic about quick de-escalation. Iran has discovered controlling the Strait is cheap and effective, reducing incentive for compromise. Rapid renewable transition remains a 10-15 year fantasy.

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