1. Trend: Supply-Demand Battle and Overheating Resolution

In January, the exchange whale ratio was low but saw extreme selling in February and March (Jan 10: 0.345, Feb 21: 0.845, Mar 14: 0.835). April reverted to January levels, though some days remain higher (Apr 4: 0.734, Apr 8: 0.521).

Exchange netflows show massive inflows and outflows crossing since January, proving a fierce supply-demand battle (Jan 14: -6889, Jan 31: 12991, Mar 16: -18933). This volatility continues in April (Apr 6: 4157, Apr 10: -5407).

Massive long liquidations significantly resolved overheated leverage. Despite price drops, the short-term holder realized price never broke and remains a firm support line.

2. Micro Trend: Short-Term Anxiety and Sentiment Recovery

The perpetual-spot price gap consistently recorded minus figures, showing lingering bearish anxiety (Apr 4: -29.42, Apr 10: -45.3).

However, the short-term holder SOPR recovered to 1 or above in April, halting panic selling and stabilizing sentiment (Apr 8: 1.011, Apr 11: 1.011). The adjusted SOPR also re-entered the profit zone (Apr 8: 1.008).

ERC20 reserve is defending its level, but TRC20 reserve is trending downward from its peaks, indicating partially reduced buying capacity.

3. Conclusion

This is a healthy correction phase rather than a dead cat bounce. The market is consolidating its bottom after shaking off extreme leverage and whale selling pressure amid a massive supply-demand battle since January.

The core support line is defended, and short-term investor sentiment is recovering. Lingering short betting in the derivatives market could act as fuel for a short squeeze if spot market dynamics stay positive.

Written by Easy On Chain