🇺🇸🇮🇷 There's an important gap between what Trump posted last night and what CENTCOM actually announced this morning. And it matters a lot.

Trump said any ship that paid Iran a toll to transit the Strait would be pursued and intercepted in international waters. That's an act of war against third-party shipping. That's what sent markets into panic mode overnight.

CENTCOM said something different.

The blockade, which starts at 10am ET today, only applies to vessels entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. If your ship isn't going to or from Iran, CENTCOM says you have freedom of navigation through the Strait. Full stop.

So what is this actually?

It's a port blockade, not a full naval siege of the Strait. The US is cutting off Iran's ability to export anything by sea, oil, gas, goods, all of it, while technically leaving the Strait itself open to non-Iranian traffic.

That's a meaningful distinction. It's economic strangulation of Iran without triggering a full global shipping crisis on day one.

The strategic logic is clear. Iran's leverage in every negotiation has been the Strait, holding 20% of global oil supply hostage. The US is now saying: fine, keep threatening the Strait, but we're cutting off your ports regardless, and the rest of the world gets to keep moving.

It's maximum pressure without maximum escalation. For now.

The question is whether Iran reads it that way. Tehran has already said it will "retaliate against military vessels entering the strait." And the IRGC doesn't always wait for foreign ministry approval before pulling a trigger.

The ceasefire is technically still alive. The blockade starts in hours. And somewhere in the Gulf right now, both sides are deciding how far to push.#war