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Moses254
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Solana, XRP and Litecoin ETFs Hit 100% Approval Odds, Says Bloomberg Analyst
Here’s a breakdown of what’s going on and how much weight to put on the claim that Solana, XRP, and Litecoin ETFs now have “100% approval odds” (per a Bloomberg analyst).
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What’s actually being claimed / what changed
1. New SEC “generic listing standards”
The SEC recently approved generic listing standards for spot crypto ETFs.
Under this approach, exchanges (e.g. Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, Cboe) can list certain crypto ETFs that meet standardized criteria without requiring a separate 19b-4 rule change filing for each one.
Because of that, the previous “clock” tied to those 19b-4 filings (which had a deadline component) is now viewed as less relevant or “meaningless” in this context.
Thus, the key shift is procedural: the regulatory pathway is now simplified, which makes ETF approval for more altcoins more feasible (all else equal).
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2. What the Bloomberg analyst is saying
The Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas (along with colleague James Seyffart) previously had estimated high probabilities (90–95 %) for these altcoin (SOL, XRP, LTC) spot ETFs.
With the new regulatory change, Balchunas says that the “odds are really 100% now,” meaning he views approval as almost certain, due to the removal of the main procedural barrier.
He notes that now the only remaining step is to get the S-1 registration statements approved by the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance.
He also points to filings: e.g. issuers have submitted “amendment #4” for Solana’s S-1, indicating advancement in that process.
He is not guaranteeing an approval (since nothing is fully guaranteed in regulation), but he’s elevating his confidence to near certainty given the new framework.
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The caveats & counterpoints
Even with the shift, “100% odds” should be interpreted carefully. Some things to keep in mind:
1. “Odds” are still subjective forecasts
They reflect confidence but are not guarantees. Many things (legal, political, staff decisions) can intervene.
Analysts can’t force the SEC’s hand; they can only interpret regulatory signals.
2. Regulatory, legal risk remains
The SEC could raise objections on specifics (disclosure, custody, market surveillance).
The new standards reduce one barrier (19b-4 filing), but they do not eliminate all due diligence or internal review.
Some past crypto regulatory moves show reversals or stricter enforcement are possible.
3. Timelines and sequencing
The old deadlines (e.g. Oct 2 for LTC, Oct 10 for SOL, Oct 17 for XRP) were tied to the previous regime. Under the new regime, the SEC could act earlier or later than those dates.
Even if the procedural barrier is lower, coordination among issuers, exchanges, legal teams, and SEC staff all matter.
4. Market expectations & behavior risk
If markets already “price in” expectation of approval, any delay or partial rejection could spark volatility.
There is always a risk of over-optimism.
5. Scope of “approval”
“Approval” here refers to spot ETFs for these cryptocurrencies. It does not necessarily mean every variant (e.g. with staking, derivatives, exotic wrappers) will be accepted.
There may still be conditions or limitations placed on the product structures.
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My take (and what to watch)
I think the Bloomberg analyst’s push to 100% is ambitious, but it’s rooted in a real shift in the regulatory backdrop. The procedural simplification is a strong tailwind for altcoin ETF approvals.
It’s not absurd to expect that some SOL, XRP, LTC spot ETFs will get approved relatively soon, especially those with clean S-1s and strong legal/backing support.
What to watch in the coming days/weeks:
Any SEC announcements or approvals regarding those specific ETFs.
Notices or filings from issuers about S-1 amendments or responses from SEC staff.
Statements from SEC personnel or Commissioners — sometimes internal resistance surfaces even when policy seems favorable.
Market reactions (price, volume) in SOL, XRP, LTC as news flows.
---
What’s actually being claimed / what changed
1. New SEC “generic listing standards”
The SEC recently approved generic listing standards for spot crypto ETFs.
Under this approach, exchanges (e.g. Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, Cboe) can list certain crypto ETFs that meet standardized criteria without requiring a separate 19b-4 rule change filing for each one.
Because of that, the previous “clock” tied to those 19b-4 filings (which had a deadline component) is now viewed as less relevant or “meaningless” in this context.
Thus, the key shift is procedural: the regulatory pathway is now simplified, which makes ETF approval for more altcoins more feasible (all else equal).
---
2. What the Bloomberg analyst is saying
The Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas (along with colleague James Seyffart) previously had estimated high probabilities (90–95 %) for these altcoin (SOL, XRP, LTC) spot ETFs.
With the new regulatory change, Balchunas says that the “odds are really 100% now,” meaning he views approval as almost certain, due to the removal of the main procedural barrier.
He notes that now the only remaining step is to get the S-1 registration statements approved by the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance.
He also points to filings: e.g. issuers have submitted “amendment #4” for Solana’s S-1, indicating advancement in that process.
He is not guaranteeing an approval (since nothing is fully guaranteed in regulation), but he’s elevating his confidence to near certainty given the new framework.
---
The caveats & counterpoints
Even with the shift, “100% odds” should be interpreted carefully. Some things to keep in mind:
1. “Odds” are still subjective forecasts
They reflect confidence but are not guarantees. Many things (legal, political, staff decisions) can intervene.
Analysts can’t force the SEC’s hand; they can only interpret regulatory signals.
2. Regulatory, legal risk remains
The SEC could raise objections on specifics (disclosure, custody, market surveillance).
The new standards reduce one barrier (19b-4 filing), but they do not eliminate all due diligence or internal review.
Some past crypto regulatory moves show reversals or stricter enforcement are possible.
3. Timelines and sequencing
The old deadlines (e.g. Oct 2 for LTC, Oct 10 for SOL, Oct 17 for XRP) were tied to the previous regime. Under the new regime, the SEC could act earlier or later than those dates.
Even if the procedural barrier is lower, coordination among issuers, exchanges, legal teams, and SEC staff all matter.
4. Market expectations & behavior risk
If markets already “price in” expectation of approval, any delay or partial rejection could spark volatility.
There is always a risk of over-optimism.
5. Scope of “approval”
“Approval” here refers to spot ETFs for these cryptocurrencies. It does not necessarily mean every variant (e.g. with staking, derivatives, exotic wrappers) will be accepted.
There may still be conditions or limitations placed on the product structures.
---
My take (and what to watch)
I think the Bloomberg analyst’s push to 100% is ambitious, but it’s rooted in a real shift in the regulatory backdrop. The procedural simplification is a strong tailwind for altcoin ETF approvals.
It’s not absurd to expect that some SOL, XRP, LTC spot ETFs will get approved relatively soon, especially those with clean S-1s and strong legal/backing support.
What to watch in the coming days/weeks:
Any SEC announcements or approvals regarding those specific ETFs.
Notices or filings from issuers about S-1 amendments or responses from SEC staff.
Statements from SEC personnel or Commissioners — sometimes internal resistance surfaces even when policy seems favorable.
Market reactions (price, volume) in SOL, XRP, LTC as news flows.
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