*BTC Short Update – May 3, 2026*
- *Price*: $78,642.59, +2.94% 24h — holding $78k after Fed decision
- *24h range*: $76,111 - $78,914.12
- *Market cap*: ∼$1.54T, #1
- *Setup*: Broke back above 100-hour SMA $78,126. Still capped by $79k-$80k wall. RSI 56 neutral, MACD flattening. Volume $8B — thin liquidity continues
- *Macro*: Fed held rates 3.5%-3.75% Apr 30 with 3 dissents. 30-yr yield at 5% = headwind for risk
*Key levels*:
- *Break*: $78,914 → $80,000 → $82,000. Clean $80k close targets $86k-$89k
- *Support*: $76,111 → $76,000 → $75,648 100-day EMA, $73,500 line in sand
*Different angle*:
1. *ETF flows*: IBIT $44.62, +3%. April saw first net outflows after 8-day streak, but small inflows returned
2. *Derivatives*: Open interest -6% in 24h — de-risking. Funding neutral to negative, Coinbase Premium negative = US spot bid quiet
3. *Sentiment*: Hayes $125k year-end bull vs Terpin $57k Oct bear. Grok AI: $88k-$95k May if $75k holds
Still chopping $76k-$79k. Needs volume + $79k daily close to run. Lose $76k and $74k opens fast.
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