Crude Oil at 110, Gold at 4530, CPI at 3.8%, Fed's rate cut probability this year hitting zero.
These three numbers paint a clear logical chain: the Middle East situation is driving up oil prices, which in turn boosts inflation, locking monetary policy in place, while that monetary policy stifles risk assets.
BTC is at the very end of this chain, bearing the pressure after layers of transmission.
Interestingly, the last time CPI was this high was in September 2023, when BTC was sitting at 26,000, and now it's nearly 77,000—a threefold increase.
This indicates that BTC's pricing power is shifting from macro factors to structural buyers. ETFs and strategic large holders have already altered the underlying supply and demand dynamics.
Macro determines volatility, structure dictates direction; these two forces are in a tug-of-war.