The Iran 60-day MOU is "mostly agreed" — but Iran fired ballistic missiles at Kuwait overnight while diplomats were drafting the terms. UBS says there is still "little evidence" of any improvement in actual vessel traffic through the Strait. The deal is on paper. The bombs are still real.

PCE landed yesterday. Headline rose to 3.8% — highest since 2023. Monthly core PCE came in at 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast. A small relief on the monthly print. Not enough to revive rate cut expectations. Markets are now pricing a 40% chance of a Fed hike by December 2026. Warsh's first rate signal at the June 17 FOMC is the only near-term macro catalyst that changes that.

Today: $6.2 billion in Bitcoin options expire on Deribit. Max pain at $75,000 — above current spot. The gravitational pull is upward from here into expiry.