Alright, let’s break down this 4H ETH/USDT chart step by step and map the probable next move based on what my indicators are showing.
🔍 Current Market Structure
• Price: ~1879
• Strong drop from ~2038 → 1816
• Currently seeing a small bounce after a sharp sell-off
👉 This is a bearish trend with a short-term relief bounce
📉 Indicator Analysis
1. Moving Averages (MA)
• MA(7): 1893 (above current price)
• MA(25): 1975
• MA(99): 2058
👉 All MAs are above price and sloping down = strong bearish control
👉 Any upward move likely faces resistance at:
• 1890–1900 (first resistance)
• 1970 (major resistance)
2. Bollinger Bands
• Lower band: ~1844
• Price bounced slightly after touching near lower zone
👉 This suggests:
• Price was oversold short-term
• Current move = relief bounce, not reversal yet
3. MACD
• Still negative, but histogram is weakening (less red)
👉 Momentum:
• Bearish, but selling pressure is slowing
• Possible short-term consolidation or bounce
4. Volume
• High sell volume during drop
• Current bounce has lower volume
👉 Weak buying strength → bounce may not sustain
5. Supertrend + SAR
• Both still bearish (above price)
👉 Trend direction = DOWN
⚠️ Key Levels
🟥 Resistance
• 1890 – 1900 (very important)
• 1930 – 1975 (trend continuation zone)
🟩 Support
• 1816 (recent low)
• If broken → next likely:
• 1780
• 1750 zone
📊 Probable Scenarios
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Higher Probability)
• Price gets rejected at 1890–1900
• Continues downward
• Breaks 1816 low
👉 Targets:
• 1780 → 1750
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Lower Probability)
• Price breaks and holds above 1900
• Moves toward:
• 1930
• 1975
👉 BUT:
• This would still be a pullback inside a downtrend, not a full reversal
🧠 Summary (Trader’s View)
• Market is clearly bearish
• Current move = dead cat bounce / relief rally
• Best approach:
• Look for rejection at resistance
• Avoid chasing longs unless 1900 breaks strongly