Pointing out that over 10 million $BTC are currently held at an unrealized loss is a crucial reality check. When K33 and Glassnode confirm that the Total Supply in Loss has officially crossed that 50% threshold, it means the structural pain is real and widespread.

Historically, hitting this exact point has been a classic signal that we are deeply entrenched in a proper cyclical deleveraging phase, much like the late 2022 lows.

However, I’m not entirely convinced that a clean three-month timeline is a given for the ultimate bottom. While crossing the 50% underwater mark shows severe investor duress, history also indicates that supply in loss can linger at these extreme levels for months before a true trend reversal triggers.

Given that macro pressures and geopolitical headlines are driving this risk-off sentiment, we might see an extended, boring sideways grind rather than a swift capitulation event. I feel like trying to time the exact month right now is a bit premature when the fundamental market dynamics haven't even begun to stabilize yet.