The Fed tracks real-time consumer spending at stores and restaurants. Almost no one pays attention.

This week it went negative for the first time in months.

Feb: +0.8%

April: flat

May: -1.3%

The consumer is two-thirds of the economy. When people pull back, everything else follows.

And the backdrop is ugly. Inflation at 4.2%, highest in three years. Gas up 40%. Long-term unemployed workers (27+ weeks) now 27.5%, up from 20% a year ago.

The loop is starting: prices rise → people spend less → sales fall → companies slow hiring → repeat.

This is how recessions build quietly before anyone admits it.