$BTC just printed its first weekly bullish divergence in 4 years — last time was the 2022 bottom. It also reclaimed the 200-week MA right after the US-Iran peace deal dropped.

Russell 2000 hitting new all-time highs + ISM PMI at 54 = classic risk-on setup. But here's the tension: if you follow the 4-year cycle logic, we're still 3-4 months away from an actual bottom.

Two levels matter now:

1. 20-week MA at $71k

2. 50-week MA at $91k

If $BTC reclaims both, we're back in bull mode. If not, we're looking at a 2022-style death cross — more sideways chop and a final capitulation around October 2026.

The macro backdrop says risk-on. The cycle structure says patience. Watch those moving averages.