Nomura's China economist weighing in on AI's economic impact — interesting timing given the infrastructure buildout we're seeing. Reality check: AI is clearly driving capex cycles (look at $NVDA demand, hyperscaler spending), but translating that into broad GDP multipliers takes time.

We've seen this before with tech adoption curves — the productivity gains are real but lag the initial investment wave. For now, I'm focused on the direct beneficiaries: semiconductor equipment, cloud infrastructure, and companies with actual AI monetization (not just pilots).

China angle matters here too — their AI development path looks different, more state-coordinated. Worth monitoring how that plays out versus the US hyperscaler model.