Warsh's First FOMC Meeting | June 17, 2026

Current Situation

The Fed has held rates at 3.50%–3.75% for three consecutive meetings. May 2026 CPI came in at 4.2% YoY, well above target, while unemployment remains near 4.3%. However, core CPI rose only 0.2% MoM, below expectations, suggesting most inflation pressure is tied to Gulf-related energy shocks.

Scenario Analysis

SCENARIO 1 — Rates Unchanged + Hawkish Tone (~85%)**

Base case. Warsh avoids signaling easing, while the dot plot may push back the timing of future cuts.

🟡 $BTC /Crypto → Neutral to mildly bearish, leverage flushed out

🔴 Stocks → Slight decline, "higher for longer" pressure

🔴 Oil → Downward bias from a stronger dollar

🔴 Gold → Weakness as real yields stay elevated

🟢 DXY → Higher

SCENARIO 2 — Rates Unchanged + Dovish Surprise (~10%)**

If Warsh opens the door to a September cut, risk assets could rally.

🟢 BTC/Crypto → Strong upside, altcoins outperform

🟢 Stocks → Broad rally led by growth names

🟢 Oil → Higher on weaker dollar and stronger risk appetite

🟢 Gold → Sharp gains as real yields fall

🔴 DXY → Lower

SCENARIO 3 — Surprise Hike / Extremely Hawkish (~5%)**

Low probability but potentially the most disruptive outcome.

🔴 BTC/Crypto → Sharp selloff, liquidation risk

🔴 Stocks → Significant decline, led by tech

🔴 Oil → Lower on demand concerns

🟡 Gold → Initial drop, then recovery

🟢 DXY → Strong rally

⚠️ The key focus is not the rate decision itself, but the dot plot and Warsh's tone during the press conference.

Decision: ~21:00 (UTC+3)

Press Conference: ~21:30 (UTC+3)