When I say Bitcoin could crash, I don’t mean a one-day violent drop like October 10
That kind of move is a market malfunction and has never represented a true crypto crash historically.
A crash means several consecutive days of selling a Black Swan event.
For example:
The October 10 drop was normal and healthy for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and any solid coin.But the drop from $48K to $25K in 2022 took three weeks because it was a real Black Swan (rate hikes + quantitative tightening).
A Bitcoin crash requires a Black Swan.
It won’t be caused by an Iran strike, that kind of event is not big enough.
A true systemic trigger would be something like Japanese bonds, and it would hit all markets, not just crypto.
Even then, it might be avoided, as Japan is currently trying to manage the situation with U.S. support.
If an Iran strike happens, it would likely cause a drop without breaking $80K, probably toward $82K–$84K.
For a Black Swan, you need something massive, not just geopolitical headlines.
Even Russia invading Ukraine only dropped Bitcoin from $42K to $34K, without breaking the prior $32K low, and price later rallied to $48K for a lower high.
That’s because wars are usually priced in, and news-driven moves are 90% traps (fake moves).
The same applies to Fed news, the market usually prices expectations beforehand.
In 2022, after Bitcoin reached $48K, it dropped naturally without negative news because the entire move up was distribution.
That’s similar to now:
Current bear flag: $80K–$97K2022 bear flag: $32K–$48K
So if history repeats:
An Iran event could give a bottom at $82K–$84KThen a bounce to $92K–$93KFollowed by a parachute drop breaking $74K
Could we also see a move toward the 50-week moving average with a fake breakout like 2022 (e.g. price reaching $100K first)?
Yes, that scenario is also possible.
That’s why my current personal analysis shown in the January Bitcoin updates and the private channel across multiple charts points to a violent bearish path, with clear activation levels and invalidation levels.
If Bitcoin bounces from $84K with strong candles and high momentum and breaks $93K, then this analysis fails and the market must be reassessed:
Maybe it tops near $100K and then dropsOr maybe the bottom was already made
Momentum is everything.
A slow, lazy move up (like now) toward $93K = corrective rallyA sharp V-shaped recovery breaking all resistances = real bullish move, meaning the bottom was already in at $80K on Nov 21
If a breakdown below $74K happens, it will be obvious early.
You’ll see social media analysts talking about “many supports below” and calling it a correction, while Bitcoin keeps falling nonstop.
Most likely, you’ll also see a weekly doji candle before that drop.
Don’t ask me for distant future paths, I’m not claiming to know the unseen.
I read the market as it prints on the chart, and when it does, I call it with ~90% accuracy, just like:
The September topThe $97K top in early January
I’m fully convinced that any school of analysis that predicts far-ahead paths has a much higher failure rate than pure price action, which is far more precise.
When I say “we’re going to price X,” don’t ask whether it will break or not.
Price action at level X is what answers everything.
The battle between bulls and bears is written in price action and it can be analyzed, just like collisions between cars or ships are studied to understand impact and outcomes.
