🕒 The $23 Billion Timer: Why Monday is the Real "Judgment Day"
The market is holding its breath. At 16:00 (UTC), a staggering $23.6 billion in year-end options will expire. But don't be fooled by the Friday "settlement"—the real move usually waits for the weekend dust to settle.
If history is our guide, the "Monday Bloody Monday" (or Moon-day) script is already written. Let’s look at the data.
📜 The Delivery Script: A 3-Month Streak
We’ve seen this pattern repeat without fail. The delivery acts as a clearing event, and the "coiled spring" releases on Monday:
September ($18B): Delivery cleared ➡️ Monday morning pump: $108k ➡️ $126k.
October ($13B): Delivery cleared ➡️ Monday morning dump: $110k ➡️ $100k.
November ($13B): Delivery cleared ➡️ Monday morning slide: $91k ➡️ $84k.
🎯 Key Levels to Watch
Today is just the "clearing platform." The life-and-death struggle for direction happens at these two psychological battlegrounds:
$90,000 (The Bull Line): If bulls can reclaim and hold this, the "Santa Rally" dream stays alive.
$85,000 (The Bear Button): This is the high-gamma put wall. If this level breaches without a fast bounce, expect a hunt for deeper liquidity.
💡 Survival Strategy
This isn't a time for "guessing" the bottom. It’s a time for capital preservation. With liquidity thinning out during the holiday week, even small orders can cause violent swings.
The "Max Pain" price sits around $96,000, meaning market makers have every incentive to pin the price near there until the clock strikes zero. After that? The handcuffs are off.
The Golden Rule: It’s not about being right today; it’s about having enough margin to survive until Monday’s direction is confirmed.
What’s your move? Are you hedging at $85k or longing the $90k flip? 👇
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