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INTRODUCTION
Listen, I’ve been rekt before. In 2021, I bought a "promising" gaming token because the website looked cool. Two weeks later? Down 95%. Why? Because I ignored the Tokenomics.
Most people treat crypto like a casino. They see a low price and think "cheap." But experienced traders know: Price is vanity, Tokenomics is sanity.
If you don't understand who holds the supply and when they can dump on you, you are not an investor. You are Exit Liquidity.
Today, I’m putting on my mentor hat. Let’s save your portfolio from the next rug pull.
1. THE "INSIDER TRAP": HIGH TEAM ALLOCATION
This is the most common killer. You find a new shiny Altcoin, but you check the distribution and see:
Team: 25%Advisors: 10%"Ecosystem Fund" (controlled by team): 30%Public Sale: 10%
Why this is bad: When insiders hold >50% of the supply, the project is centralized. They don't need to build a product; they just need to wait for the unlock date and sell on your head.
The Rule: If Public Allocation is less than 50%, be extremely careful. Real decentralized projects (like Bitcoin or fair-launch coins) don't give the CEO a billion dollars for free.
Check $WLD (Worldcoin) for a masterclass in high insider supply.
2. THE "INFLATION BOMB": LOW CIRCULATING SUPPLY
You see a token trading at $1.00.
Market Cap: $10 Million (Looks cheap! "Gem!")Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV): $1 Billion
What this means: Only 1% of the tokens are currently in the market. The other 99% are locked in a cage, waiting to be released.
Over the next 1-2 years, that supply WILL hit the market. If demand doesn't grow by 100x (spoiler: it won't), the price MUST crash to absorb the new tokens.
The Rule: Never buy a token with <10% Circulating Supply unless you are scalping for 5 minutes.
Look at huge FDV coins from 2024 that are now dead. Inflation is the silent killer.
3. THE "YIELD TRAP": UNSUSTAINABLE APY
"Stake now and earn 500% APY!" 🤑
Sounds great, right? Wrong.
Where does that yield come from? It comes from printing more tokens.
If a project pays you 500% in their own token, they are inflating the supply by 500%. Your share of the pie stays the same (or shrinks), while the price of the token collapses because everyone is selling their rewards.
The Rule: Real yield comes from Revenue (fees), not Inflation. If the project doesn't make money (like a DEX taking fees), the APY is a trap.
THE "SECRET SAUCE": CHECK THE UNLOCK CALENDAR 🤫
Here is the alpha that separates pros from amateurs.
Before you buy, go to TokenUnlocks or Coinglass.
Look for the next "Cliff Unlock" (a massive release of tokens on a specific day).
If a project has a $50M unlock next week, DO NOT BUY.Smart Money shorts the unlock. Dumb Money buys the dip and gets crushed.
Pro Tip: Often, the price dumps 2-3 days BEFORE the unlock as insiders front-run the news.
YOUR SURVIVAL CHECKLIST
Before you ape into that next 100x gem, ask these 3 questions:
Who holds the bags? (Is >20% in one wallet?)What is the FDV? (Is it 10x higher than Market Cap?)When is the next unlock? (Is it this month?)
CONCLUSION
Crypto is a Player vs Player game. The VCs and Insiders have the best weapons (early entry, cheap tokens). Your only weapon is Due Diligence.
Don't be the person buying their bags at the top. Be the person spotting the Red Flag and walking away.
Follow for more Alpha on #BinanceSquare! 🚀🇺🇦
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