$ENSO La Niña conditions are still officially present in the tropical Pacific, marked by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific — especially in key Niño regions used by forecasters. However, this La Niña is weak and diminishing.
ENSO Alert System: La Niña Advisory remains in effect as of early February 2026.
SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region (a key ENSO index) are below average, but edging toward neutral.
Atmospheric patterns (trade winds, convection) are consistent with La Niña but weakening.
📈 Transition to ENSO-Neutral Likely
Forecasters expect La Niña to weaken and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions (neither La Niña nor El Niño) during January–March 2026 with high likelihood. Neutral conditions are expected to persist into late spring 2026.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gives ~75% chance of neutral conditions by late Northern Hemisphere spring.
ENSO-neutral means tropical Pacific SSTs are near average and typical La Niña/El Niño atmospheric impacts weaken.
📊 Forecast Outlook
ENSO forecast models (e.g., IRI consensus) indicate:
La Niña probabilities falling through early 2026.
ENSO-neutral is most likely across spring and early summer.
Beyond mid-year, the odds of El Niño emergence increase, though long-range predictions are still uncertain due to the spring predictability barrier.
📌 What This Means for Weather
ENSO influences global weather patterns:
La Niña typically brings cooler, wetter conditions to some regions and drier conditions to others.
ENSO-neutral means less ENSO-driven influence on seasonal weather extremes.
If El Niño were to develop later in 2026, it could shift global temperature patterns and influence hurricane activity and monsoon behaviour #RiskAssetsMarketShock #JPMorganSaysBTCOverGold #WarshFedPolicyOutlook #WhenWillBTCRebound #EthereumLayer2Rethink? 
