$BTC At the beginning of 2026, the crypto market has clearly entered the final phase of its cycle. Many like to call this the “final wave,” but in reality, this is the transition into a full downtrend, what we know as the bear market phase.
Bitcoin already showed clear signs of weakness early in the year. In January, BTC corrected by around 25%. February brought another 25% decline, which completely broke the bullish market structure. Once Bitcoin lost the 75K support level, the uptrend was technically invalidated.
So what lies ahead?
A lot of people are confused about why the crypto market is dumping so aggressively. The answer is not complicated. Large capital is taking profits. Smart money is exiting risk assets after a strong multi year run.
One major factor is the fading AI investment narrative. Throughout 2023 and 2024, AI was aggressively promoted by the tech sector and Wall Street. That story is now losing momentum and slowly turning into a source of concern rather than excitement.
At the same time, tech stocks are coming under heavy pressure. Amazon recently dropped 11% in a single session. As we move closer to the traditional “sell in May” period, other major names like Alphabet, Nvidia, and Microsoft could face similar selling pressure.
Gold and silver have also weakened as the US dollar regains strength. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and potential Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have both openly supported a strong dollar policy. Historically, a strong dollar is negative for gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies.
Will the selling pressure stop soon?
Most likely, no.
Every crypto cycle includes a phase where fear is deliberately amplified. Mid year usually brings heavy FUD, and toward the end of the year, the market experiences a deep dip that shakes confidence completely. This pattern played out clearly in both 2018 and 2022, and 2026 is shaping up in a similar way.
That said, there is good news.
We are slowly approaching what could be the best opportunity to buy Bitcoin at its lowest prices for the next four years. However, for new investors entering the market now, the coming months may feel very bleak. The market is currently dominated by fear, uncertainty, and negative sentiment.
So when is a good time to buy?
Personally, I do not plan to buy aggressively until after May and until major FUD events have passed. Entering too early during a fear driven market often leads to poor decision making.
In the last bear market of 2022, the crash was triggered by the collapse of the 3AC fund and the FTX exchange. This cycle also carries the risk of a similar black swan event that could cause a market wide panic sell. Some market makers may already be under stress, with consequences unfolding quietly in the background.
The recent resignation of Multicoin Capital CEO Kyle Samani could be an early warning sign. In the previous cycle, Alameda Research co CEO Sam Trabucco resigned in August 2022, just months before the FTX collapse.
My expectation is that this cycle’s major dip could occur in the 35K to 45K range, potentially around November, triggered by a Trump related political or macro event.
The most practical strategy is to divide capital into six equal parts and accumulate Bitcoin gradually from June through December. This approach reduces timing risk and helps maintain emotional discipline during extreme volatility.
Bear markets are difficult, but they are also where long term wealth is built. Those who remain patient and disciplined during this phase are usually the ones who benefit the most in the next cycle.
