$BITCOIN Bear Market Reality Check 📉
Every Bitcoin bear market feels catastrophic in the moment—but the numbers tell a consistent story.
Historical $BTC drawdowns:
2011: −93%
2015: −86%
2018: −84%
2022: −77%
There’s a clear trend here: each cycle’s crash is roughly 7% less severe than the one before it.
If that pattern holds, the next cycle points to a drawdown of around −70%.
Now do the math:
Cycle top: $126K
−70% correction = ~$38K potential bottom
This is why chasing “dip buys” at $69K, $60K, or $50K often ends in disappointment. What feels cheap emotionally isn’t always cheap structurally.
Markets don’t reward impatience.
They reward those willing to wait when conviction disappears.
I’m not hunting the noise.
I’ll be watching closer to $38K — because history rarely lies $BTC
