The rebound on Friday came pretty much as expected. Ethereum $ETH moved up from around 1800 to nearly 2100, and Solana managed to hold above 80 for now. However, the probability of another drop is still relatively high. At the moment, many whales seem to be waiting for rebounds to liquidate their positions, and some have already exited completely. There’s also a view that Friday’s rebound was driven by whales exiting the market, though this remains subjective.
Starting with ETH $ETH price previously dipped to around 1700. Thankfully, it held at 1700 instead of breaking into the 1600–1500 range. A move into those levels could easily trigger large-scale liquidations, which would not be healthy for short-term price action and could push the market into a longer bearish consolidation. For now, the strategy remains to look for short opportunities after an oversold rebound. Shorting in the 2050–2030 zone could target the 1850 area, offering a buffer of more than 100 points.
From a broader perspective, the entire first quarter appears to be following a neutral-to-bearish structure, with prices oscillating lower and continuing the downtrend that started back in October–November last year. Because of this, it’s unlikely that the decline will end quickly. I previously compared this market to constipation—slow and uncomfortable at first, but once it clears, the move can be explosive. Now we’ll see whether the market plays out according to that analogy.
As for I’m still taking a wait-and-see approach. Those who haven’t entered yet may consider short setups around the 83–81 range. Aggressive targets are near 65, while more conservative targets sit around 69. Right now, both long and short structures are quite messy, so it’s likely we’ll see liquidity sweeps on both sides before any real trend reversal. We’re probably in the late stage of the bear market, which makes this a good time to start tracking high-quality blue-chip projects for long-term positioning. Once the bull market starts, returns could be much larger than expected.
Finally, after the sharp drop from February 10 to early March, Ethereum could eventually rebound toward the 2500–2800 range. This would mainly be driven by the build-up of short positions at lower levels, requiring a breakout move similar to a springboard or “match-three” structure. If we don’t see that sharp decline first, there’s no need to rush into bottom-fishing or early spot accumulation. Overall, the market outlook for the first half of 2026 remains something worth looking forward to.$ETH
