If you zoom out and look at the current structure, #Bitcoin is clearly building a wide box, roughly between $57K and $87K.
From my perspective, this is not a bullish base getting ready to explode higher. This is a sideways phase, where the market is preparing for a much larger move later on. But this time, the sideways action isn’t about accumulating for new highs — it’s about building liquidity for a deeper move, and I lean toward that move being down once this process is complete.
If you remember 2024, #BTC spent almost the entire year ranging between $58K–$74K before finally breaking out toward $100K. Back then, I repeatedly said that 2024’s range would later become a key reference zone during the next bear phase.
And that’s exactly what’s happening now.
In a bull market, a range acts as a launchpad.
In a bear market, a range is just structure — and structure eventually breaks.
My current approach
My plan is straightforward. I’m still holding shorts from the $115K–$125K region. At the same time, I’ve placed spot buy orders around $57K–$60K to take advantage of potential technical rebounds. The key point: no leverage on longs.
That $57K–$60K zone, to me, represents a local bottom of this phase — not the cycle bottom. Any buys there are for a rebound trade, not an all-in bet on a new bull run.
Bear markets never move straight down.
2022 was the perfect example: $BTC fell from $68K to $33K, then rallied nearly 50%, before eventually collapsing to $16K. Those rallies exist to create liquidity and convince participants that “the worst is over” — before the next leg lower.
So if Bitcoin rebounds toward $80K–$87K in the coming weeks, I wouldn’t be surprised at all. In fact, that zone could offer another opportunity to re-enter shorts if structure and momentum align.
That said, I don’t treat $87K as a guaranteed target. It’s simply the logical ceiling of the current range. What matters more is the higher-timeframe picture. With the weekly still needing time to cool off and the monthly 50 EMA continuing to get tested, the risk of a deeper breakdown remains very real.
The scenario I still lean toward is a final move below $50K, potentially even into the low $40Ks. That’s where I’d start thinking seriously about positioning for the next long-term cycle.
Bottom line
For me, this is a range-trading environment, not a “buy and dream about new ATHs” phase. Buy near the bottom of the box for rebounds, sell near the top of the box if price allows, and stay patient for levels that truly offer asymmetric long-term opportunity.
Bear markets aren’t dangerous because prices fall — they’re dangerous because they convince you the bottom is already in.
Stick to the plan. Keep discipline. And accept that the market may move sideways for a long time before revealing its real intention.
