History doesn’t repeat perfectly — but it rhymes. And right now, Bitcoin looks very similar to the 2017 and 2021 cycle structure.
There’s a real possibility we see a sharp move lower — even toward the $35,000 region in a fast correction. The question is: are you prepared if that happens?
My strategy is built on two things:
TIME + PRICE
Most traders only focus on price. That’s why they constantly miss the best entries.
1️⃣ The TIME Axis
I track the number of days from each halving cycle to the final bear market low:
2012 cycle: 406 days
2016 cycle: 363 days
2020 cycle: 376 days
2024 cycle: Still developing
Notice something? The timing is very similar across cycles.
If this pattern continues, the highest-probability window for the next major bottom falls between October and November 2026.
That is my time target.
When that window arrives, I buy — regardless of what price looks like. Because time-based entries prevent you from getting front-run by the market.
2️⃣ The PRICE Axis
While waiting for the time window, I don’t ignore price.
I began accumulating once we entered the $60,000 zone.
Why?
Because waiting for the “perfect” level is how people miss the entire move.
Retail traders say, “I’ll only buy at X price.”
But if price never touches that level, they’re left behind.
My framework is simple:
If price gives value → I start buying.
If time hits the historical window → I buy regardless.
That single structure keeps me consistent.
Back in October, when Bitcoin was trading around $114,000, I said I would be a strong buyer near $60,000. Many people laughed. They said we would never see that level again.
I don’t argue with noise. I follow structure.
Now we’ve reached that zone. But the risk of a deeper low still exists — which is why the TIME axis matters.
My Plan
TIME Strategy:
October–November 2026 = Strong BUY, regardless of price.
PRICE Strategy:
Below $60,000 = Strong BUY, regardless of time.
If either condition is met, I execute consistent daily buys.
The Final Indicator I Watch: NUPL
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is an on-chain metric that historically signals major cycle bottoms.
It flashed during:
2018 bear market bottom
The COVID crash
2022 cycle low
Right now, we are not in that extreme “blue zone” yet.
That’s why I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bitcoin trading in the $45K–$50K region by late 2026. That’s the zone where I would feel comfortable going aggressive.
The market feels messy right now — but every cycle goes through this phase.
Study structure. Study time. Study psychology.
And remember: the biggest opportunities rarely come when headlines feel safe.
Stay prepared.
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