Holding the Base — or Preparing for Another Liquidity Sweep?
Price: ~1.364
24H Range: 1.346 – 1.402
24H Volume: ~112M $XRP
XRP is stabilizing after a sharp decline, but the bigger structural question remains unresolved:
Is this the beginning of a base formation — or simply a pause inside a broader downtrend?
1️⃣ The Bigger Picture (Daily Structure)
On the daily timeframe, XRP still trades below all key moving averages:
MA(7): 1.398
MA(25): 1.645
MA(99): 1.967
Price remains meaningfully below these levels, confirming that the dominant trend is still downward.
The flush toward 1.117 marked a capitulation phase.
The rebound toward 1.36 so far appears technical — a reaction to oversold conditions — rather than a confirmed structural reversal.
For sentiment to shift meaningfully, price would need to reclaim the 1.40–1.45 region with sustained acceptance.
2️⃣ What the 1H Chart Is Telling Us
Short-term dynamics show compression:
MA(7) ≈ MA(25) ≈ 1.365
MA(99) ≈ 1.392
Price is hovering around short-term averages but remains capped by the 1H MA99 — a dynamic resistance.
The recent push toward ~1.408 was rejected quickly, suggesting supply remains active above.
This looks more like consolidation inside a bearish structure than aggressive accumulation.
3️⃣ Short-Term Order Flow
On the micro timeframe:
Sell-side flow dominates (~60%+)
Upside spikes are absorbed quickly
In simple terms:
Each attempt higher is meeting immediate selling pressure. Momentum remains fragile in the very short term.
4️⃣ Where the Market Will Decide
Support to watch:
1.346 (24H low)
1.32 (short-term structural area)
1.117 (major swing low)
Resistance cluster:
1.392–1.403 (1H MA99 + 24H high)
1.45 (first meaningful structural reclaim level)
This 1.346 vs. 1.40–1.45 zone defines the near-term battleground.
5️⃣ Current Read
XRP appears to be in a post-capitulation stabilization phase.
However:
No higher high on the daily chart
No confirmed reclaim of resistance
No expansion in bullish volume
Statistically, this aligns more with a relief bounce within a broader downtrend than with a confirmed reversal — at least for now.
6️⃣ What Would Change the Narrative?
The tone shifts only if:
Price reclaims 1.40–1.45 and holds above it
1H MA99 turns into support
Upside continuation comes with expanding volume
Until then, XRP remains structurally vulnerable to another liquidity test lower.
Final Thought
The market is compressing near support.
Compression eventually resolves.
Does XRP build a solid base above 1.35 —
or revisit lower liquidity before any meaningful recovery?
What’s your read on this structure?$