Headline: On-chain metrics show Bitcoin’s capitulation still incomplete as realized-price support holds Bitcoin’s sell-off from six-figure highs into the $80k–$70k band has met meaningful on-chain support, keeping a full capitulation from unfolding so far. Even as profit-taking and weaker inflows pushed BTC lower, the price remains roughly 18% above the network’s $55,000 realized price — a level that, historically, Bitcoin has traded 24–30% below during true bear-market washouts (CryptoQuant). Why capitulation hasn’t arrived Several on-chain indicators explain why panic-driven capitulation has not yet formed: - NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) fell into the 0.20–0.30 zone as unrealized profits compressed, but it has not dropped to zero or negative territory typically seen at cycle bottoms — a signal that widespread panic losses haven’t occurred. - MVRV (market value to realized value) cooled toward ~2.0, reflecting profit reduction, yet it remains well above the sub-10 levels characteristic of capitulation periods. - Roughly half the supply is still in profit, meaning forced selling pressure has been limited and long-term holders remain generally profitable. These conditions have allowed BTC to stabilize and form a broader base rather than crash into a deep washout. Capital flows, impulse and the slowing of momentum Realized Cap Impulse — a measure of real capital inflows into realized capitalization — was comfortably above +2.0 across 2023 and early 2024. That period saw BTC climb from under $30k to the $70k–$100k range, supported by ETF inflows, institutional allocations and long-term holder absorption (Alphractal). As the cycle matured into late 2025, impulse peaks eased from >+4.5 down toward +2.0 even while the price hovered near $100k, indicating fresh capital was arriving more slowly and profit-taking increasingly replaced fresh accumulation. By early 2026 the impulse contracted toward 0.0 and turned negative, signaling structural capital contraction. With supply still available, price softened into the $85k–$90k range. From here, renewed upward momentum will depend on fresh ETF inflows, resumed long-term accumulation and broader macro liquidity — while continued deterioration in inflows could extend corrective conditions. Holder behavior and exchange liquidity Short-term holder stress has been notable: STH-MVRV sits near 0.95, indicating recent buyers are underwater and explaining episodes of panic selling. Indeed, realized losses spiked as short-term holders moved more than 100,000 BTC to exchanges, a sign of forced distribution. At the same time, LTH realized cap has remained relatively stable, suggesting long-term conviction persists and that selling has been concentrated among newer entrants. Exchange flows paint a mixed picture: capitulation-style inflows appeared during dips, but intermittent outflows and thinning spot volumes — alongside ETF outflows — have set up a defensive consolidation phase that awaits fresh capital to break. Meanwhile, rising Accumulation Trend Scores point to growing dip-buying and some absorption of sell-side pressure. Bottom line On-chain metrics show that while BTC is under pressure and structural capital expansion has cooled, critical capitulation thresholds have not been breached. The market remains in a defensive consolidation where long-term holders continue to anchor supply and short-term losses drive episodic volatility. A sustained recovery will likely need renewed institutional and ETF demand, renewed long-term accumulation, or looser macro liquidity conditions. Sources: CryptoQuant, Alphractal Disclaimer: AMBCrypto’s content is informational and not investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading is high risk; do your own research. © 2026 AMBCrypto Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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