Bitcoin (BTC) might be entering the early stages of a larger B-wave rally and if that scenario plays out, the next move higher could unfold in a textbook ABC corrective structure.

In simple terms, that means:

  • Wave A: Initial push up

  • Wave B: Pullback

  • Wave C: Stronger continuation higher

If this white-labeled ABC structure develops clearly on the chart, the main resistance zone to watch sits between $86,600 and $115,040. That’s the area where upside momentum could start to slow or where bigger decisions get made.

What Needs to Happen First?

Before Bitcoin can even think about attacking that resistance range, it must:

  • Establish a Higher Low

Momentum builds when price stops making lower lows. A confirmed higher low signals buyers are stepping in earlier.

  • Hold Micro Support (Short-Term Structure)

The short-term support we’ve been tracking must hold. If that level fails, the bullish structure weakens.

Right now, that micro support is the foundation. Lose it, and the narrative shifts quickly.

Why the Structure Still Looks Fragile

There’s a reason for caution.

The bounce from the February 6 low currently resembles a corrective three-wave move, not a strong five-wave impulse. In Elliott Wave terms, that suggests the recovery might still be part of a broader correction not the start of a powerful new trend.

That’s why another leg down cannot be ruled out yet.

The Alternative (Orange Scenario)

The alternative view suggests what we’re seeing now might actually be Wave 4, not an A-wave.

If that’s true:

  • The market could still be building toward a final Wave 5

  • A push toward new all-time highs would come back into play

But and this is important that scenario requires confirmation.

We would need to see a clean five-wave impulse to the upside before confidently leaning bullish.

Key Levels to Confirm Strength

For the bullish case to gain real traction, Bitcoin must:

Break above the weekend high

Reclaim $74,460 (the April low and key red-line resistance)

Reclaiming that level would shift structure back in favor of buyers and strengthen the probability of continuation toward the higher resistance band.

The Bottom Line

Bitcoin is at a technical crossroads.

Hold support + build a higher low → ABC rally toward $86,600–$115,040 possible

Lose structure → another leg down likely

Break key resistance + show 5-wave impulse → new ATH scenario strengthens

Structure first. Bias second.

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