I’ve realized something about how I look at new Layer 1 projects now compared to a few years ago. Earlier, I used to focus on short-term excitement. Launch momentum, early activity spikes, fast growth. If something moved quickly, it felt promising. But after watching multiple cycles, I’ve started thinking differently. The projects that really matter aren’t always the ones that move first. They’re the ones that survive long enough to matter in the next phase of the market.
That’s why when I look at Fogo, I’m not thinking about the next pump. I’m thinking about the next cycle.
Fogo is positioning itself as a performance-focused Layer 1 built around the Solana Virtual Machine. From a technical standpoint, that gives it a strong base. It suggests the team understands that scalability and execution efficiency aren’t optional anymore. But I’m not impressed by performance claims alone. At this point in the industry, speed is expected. What interests me more is whether that performance can translate into long-term infrastructure value.
The Layer 1 space today is crowded and far more mature than it was in earlier cycles. Ethereum has institutional gravity and deep liquidity. Solana has established a strong reputation around performance and consumer-facing applications. Other ecosystems have locked in specific niches. So for any new chain, including Fogo, the real challenge isn’t launching. It’s becoming relevant enough to be part of the long-term conversation.
And relevance isn’t created overnight.
I think one of the biggest differences between short-term hype and long-term strength is consistency. During early stages, activity often looks impressive. Campaigns bring engagement. Incentives attract users. Social feeds become active. But what I’ve learned to watch more closely is what happens when the noise slows down. Do developers continue building even when attention shifts elsewhere? Does liquidity remain stable when rewards shrink? Does the roadmap keep progressing quietly without dramatic announcements?
Those are the signals that tell me whether something is built for a cycle or built for longevity.
When I think about Fogo in that context, I don’t see a guaranteed winner. But I do see potential if the focus remains disciplined. Being built on SVM lowers technical friction for certain developers. That could help attract builders who value performance environments. But attracting them is only step one. Retaining them is where the real work begins.
The next major cycle in crypto will likely bring heavy user participation again. When activity surges, networks get stressed. Fees spike. Congestion becomes visible. That’s when infrastructure is tested under real pressure. If Fogo can position itself before that moment arrives — building quietly, strengthening its ecosystem, deepening liquidity — it could be better prepared than chains that only react once demand explodes.
I think timing plays a bigger role than people admit. Some projects fail not because they were weak, but because they peaked too early. Others succeed because they were ready at the right moment. Right now, Fogo feels early. And early doesn’t always mean visible. It often means uncertain. But uncertainty is also where long-term positioning is shaped.
I’m not watching Fogo for immediate dominance. I’m watching to see whether it builds resilience. Whether it defines its identity clearly. Whether it attracts builders who see it as home instead of temporary opportunity. Because if it can build those foundations before the next cycle fully accelerates, it might enter that phase stronger than people expect.
Crypto rewards speed in the short term. But it rewards endurance in the long term.
And at this stage, endurance is what I’m paying attention to.
So I’m curious — when you look at new Layer 1 projects like Fogo, are you thinking about the next move, or the next cycle?
Because those are very different perspectives.