Market Quick Take – 11 March 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

Equities: Europe and Asia rebounded while Wall Street stalled, as lower oil eased panic but the Iran risk premium stayed alive.

Volatility: Iran conflict and oil risk still driving markets, CPI in focus

Digital Assets: Crypto steady below recent highs, institutional demand stronger for Bitcoin

Fixed Income: US Treasury yields rebound ahead of US Feb. CPI report.

Currencies: USD weakens slightly in Asia’s Wednesday session. AUD sets new cycle highs.

Commodities: Oil choppy on Hormuz Strait concerns and rumors and as IEA mulls strategic reserve release.

Macro events: US Feb. CPI, US Treasury to auction 10-year Notes

Macro headlines

Tensions between the US and Iran are escalating, with President Trump warning Iran about militarily responding to mines placed in the Strait of Hormuz. The US reportedly destroyed Iranian mine-laying vessels, and Trump indicated the conflict might end soon as the operation progresses ahead of schedule, calming oil price jitters. Market volatility was exacerbated by mixed messages from administration officials, including a retracted post by Energy Secretary Chris Wright.

The IEA is proposing the largest ever strategic oil reserve release to counter rising prices due to escalating Middle East tensions, surpassing the 182 million barrels released in two instances during Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

ECB President Christine Lagarde vowed to control inflation despite surging energy prices, expressing commitment to prevent past price spikes. In a Tuesday interview, she assured that Europe is better prepared to absorb current shocks due to stronger policies, though market uncertainty remains high.

The FT reports that JPMorgan is marking down the value of some of its private credit portfolios, the latest in a string of negative coverage on the value of private credit assets and in some cases limits on investor withdrawal of funds.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1230 – US Feb. CPI

1230 – US Feb. Real Average Hourly Earnings

1700 – US Treasury to auction 10-year Notes

0000 – Australia Mar. Consumer Inflation Expectations

0001 – UK Feb. RICS House Price Balance

Earnings this week

Today: Inditex, Rheinmetall, Porsche, Henkel

Thursday: Adobe, Wheaton Precious Metals, Assicurazioni Generali, BMW, RWE, Hannover Re, Dollar General, Ulta Beauty, Lennar

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Dow slipped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq was flat as hopes of de-escalation fought with fresh confusion around safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Lower oil calmed nerves, but not enough to keep the market from wobbling into the close. Nvidia, Micron, and Intel outperformed after TSMC said January-February revenue rose 29.9% year on year, a useful reminder that artificial intelligence demand had not taken the week off. After the bell, Oracle jumped 11.8% after cloud infrastructure revenue surged 84%, while Amazon’s roughly $37 billion bond sale showed how capital-hungry the build-out remains. U.S. CPI is the next test.

Europe: The STOXX 600 rose 1.9%, the Euro STOXX 50 gained 2.7%, and the FTSE 100 added 1.6% as Brent’s retreat eased the region’s stagflation headache and pulled bond yields lower. Banks rebounded hard, industrials joined in, and the mood improved just enough for investors to remember that not every day needs to start with an oil chart. ASML rose 4.6%, Infineon gained 6.1%, and Prosus surged 9.6% after TSMC’s sales update supported artificial-intelligence-linked names, while Volkswagen added 2.6% after guiding to better margins and Persimmon climbed 4.5% on stronger housing guidance. Markets now watch whether calmer energy prices can keep the central-bank debate from getting loud again.

Asia: Asia staged the strongest rebound of the day, led by South Korea, where the KOSPI jumped 5.4%, while Japan’s Nikkei rose 2.9%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng 2.2%, Australia’s ASX 200 1.1%, and Shanghai 0.7%. The driver was simple: oil cooled, risk appetite returned, and chip optimism got another lift from TSMC’s 29.9% rise in January-February revenue. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both climbed more than 8% as investors rushed back into memory and artificial intelligence hardware, while Nio’s U.S.-listed shares rose 15.4% after the company reported a surprise quarterly profit and better first-quarter guidance. The next question is whether this bounce grows legs once energy headlines return.